Dolphins vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:13 AM
  • The Dolphins (3-1) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Jets (2-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Miami Dolphins (3-1) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-2) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in East Rutherford.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Dolphins vs. Jets Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

Bet now on Jets vs Dolphins & all NFL games with BetMGM

Dolphins vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Dolphins-3.5 -10545 -110-185
Jets +3.5 -11545 -110+150

Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 5 game with 58.8% confidence.

Dolphins vs Jets Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread this Week 5 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Jets, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 7 away games (+7.05 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Zach Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 57% ROI)
  • C.J. Uzomah has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.20 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Joe Flacco has hit the Completions Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Dolphins

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Raheem Mostert +750
    Jaylen Waddle +750
    Tyreek Hill +750
    Breece Hall +1000
    Chase Edmonds +1100

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Dolphins

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Tyreek Hill +105
    Raheem Mostert +125
    Jaylen Waddle +125
    Breece Hall +150
    Chase Edmonds +170

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jets vs Dolphins

    Player Name Over Under
    Michael Carter 11.5 -110 11.5 -120
    Tyler Conklin 30.5 -120 30.5 -110
    Tyreek Hill 70.5 -115 70.5 -110
    Mike Gesicki 20.5 -110 20.5 -120
    Elijah Moore 42.5 -115 42.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jets vs Dolphins

    Player Name Over Under
    Michael Carter 31.5 -115 31.5 -115
    Teddy Bridgewater 6.5 -110 6.5 -115
    Zach Wilson 8.5 -120 8.5 -110
    Chase Edmonds 27.5 -115 27.5 -115
    Raheem Mostert 58.5 -115 58.5 -115
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+13.70 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have scored last in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 42.22% ROI).

    • Dolphins are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 69.57% ROI
    • Dolphins are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
    • Dolphins are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / ROI

    Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

    • Jets are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 40% ROI
    • Jets are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.25 Units / -5.62% ROI
    • Jets are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.6% ROI

    Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

    The Dolphins are 11-5 (.688) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-best in NFL. The Jets have turned the ball over 36 times since the 2021 season — tied for second-most in NFL.

    The Dolphins are 7-3 (.700) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

    The Dolphins are 11-5 (.688) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .595.

    The Dolphins are 7-3 (.700) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

    New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

    The Jets were winless (0-3) vs top 10 offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .376.

    The Jets are 1-3 (.250) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .735.

    The Jets were winless (0-7) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .471.

    The Jets are 1-8 (.111) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

    The Jets have thrown for 1,170 passing yards in 4 games (292.5 YPG) this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 299.2 passing yards per game this season — second-worst in NFL.

    Jets RBs have averaged just 1.0 yards after contact per carry this season — second-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 1.2 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — second-best in NFL.

    The Jets have thrown the ball 66.8% of the time this season — highest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 7.8 yards per dropback this season — second-worst in NFL.

    The Dolphins have run successful plays on 48.2% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Jets have allowed successful plays on 53.5% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

    The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of 58.3% in the fourth quarter this season — third-best in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 54.5% in the 4th quarter this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

    Dolphins TEs have 65.9 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed an average of64.0 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Dolphins have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 19.9 yard line this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26.0.

    The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Dolphins have an average drive start position from the 13.5 yard line in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.2.

    New York Jets Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Jets have not recorded a TD in 11 drives in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.0.

    The Jets have run successful plays on 27% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

    The Jets have faced a blitz 28% of the time on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

    The Jets have run the ball on 10% of plays (6 carries/62 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

    Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Dolphins defense allowed at least 5 yards on 37% of first down plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

    The Dolphins defense has allowed a passer rating of 142.6 on 3rd and long (18 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 77.2.

    The Dolphins defense has allowed first downs on 50% of plays on 3rd down this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

    New York Jets Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Jets defense had 4 interceptions in Week 4 — most in NFL.

    The Jets defense has allowed a passer rating of 98.7 when they have pressured the QB (117 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57.1.

    The Jets defense allowed first downs on 52% of rush attempts on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 69%.

    The Jets defense allowed 15.8 points per game to opposing offenses (268 points / 17 games) in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.