Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 27, 2022, 1:16 PM
  • The Patriots (7-8) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins (8-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 42 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Miami Dolphins (8-7) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (7-8) on Jan. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough.

The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 17

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Dolphins+2.5 -11042 -110+115
Patriots -2.5 -11042 -110-140

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 17

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 17 game with 60.5% confidence.

Dolphins vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 17

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread this Week 17 with 62.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeff Wilson has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jeff Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.65 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Nelson Agholor has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+8.20 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.45 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 7-8 (-1.9 Units / -11.31% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.33% ROI
  • Dolphins are 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
  • Dolphins are 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 7-7 (-0.6 Units / -3.7% ROI).

  • Patriots are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -17.08% ROI
  • Patriots are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Patriots are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Dolphins are 1-5 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL. The Patriots have intercepted 16 passes this season — tied for second-most in NFL.

The Dolphins are 4-1 (.800) when forcing at least one fumble this season — tied for 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .598.

The Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Dolphins are 6-1 (.857) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .667.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .365.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when committing 2 or more turnovers this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .299.

The Patriots are winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.

The Patriots are 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots are averaging 6.3 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field this season — third-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 6.0 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Patriots are averaging 11.1 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field since Week 13 — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 6.7 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right since Week 13 — third-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of just 31.6% in the fourth quarter this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 26.3% in the 4th quarter this season — third-best in NFL.

Dolphins WRs have 6 receiving touchdowns since Week 13 — tied for fifth-most in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 8 receiving touchdowns since Week 13 — tied for third-most in NFL.

Dolphins TEs have averaged just 3.1 yards after the catch this season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 3.9 yards after catch per reception to TEs this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 21 of 49 plays (43%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 1 of 11 plays (9%) on 3rd and short since Week 13 of the 2021 Season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Patriots ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 16 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 35% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Patriots have converted first downs on just 21 of 101 plays (21%) in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Patriots have converted first downs on just 58 of 255 plays (23%) in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 17

20% of the plays run against the Dolphins have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

35% of the plays run against the Dolphins have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter since Week 13 of the 2021 Season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed 22 TD passes in the red zone this season — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Patriots defense has averaged 1.2 interceptions per game (39/32) since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 21% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.