Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

• The Patriots are -10.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
• Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Miami Dolphins (7-9-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (13-3-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Foxborough, MA.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 74.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

• Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 59% ROI)
• Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 58% ROI)
• Devon Achane has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• Devon Achane has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 68% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.88 Units / 64% ROI)
• Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 52% ROI)
• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• Mack Hollins has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 46% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.82 Units / 24% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

• The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games (+15.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+15.55 Units / 47% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 8-8 (-0.8 Units / -4.51% ROI).

• Dolphins are 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 14.4% ROI
• Dolphins are 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.4 Units / 7.95% ROI
• Dolphins are 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 11-5 (+5.5 Units / 31.52% ROI).

• Patriots are 13-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 30.65% ROI
• Patriots are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
• Patriots are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Patriots threw for 5 TDs in Week 17 — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 82% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.49.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 14% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 17 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins have run 34% of their plays in their opponent’s territory since Week 14 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

The Dolphins have averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.49.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 14% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 17 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins have run 34% of their plays in their opponent’s territory since Week 14 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Patriots threw for 5 TDs in Week 17 — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 82% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots threw for 5 TDs in Week 17 — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 82% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.49.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 14% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 17 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins have run 34% of their plays in their opponent’s territory since Week 14 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots threw for 5 TDs in Week 17 — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 82% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.49.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 14% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 17 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins have run 34% of their plays in their opponent’s territory since Week 14 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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