- The Dolphins are -2.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch the game on NBC
The Miami Dolphins (1-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (0-1) on Sep. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Foxborough.
The Dolphins are betting favorites in this Week 2 matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -150 |
| Patriots | +3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +125 |
Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 2 game with 62.3% confidence.
Dolphins vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this Week 2 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jeff Wilson has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 84% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Dolphins
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +750 |
| Tyreek Hill | +750 |
| Raheem Mostert | +850 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +950 |
| Kendrick Bourne | +1400 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | -150 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | -105 |
| Raheem Mostert | -105 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +100 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +130 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 32.5 -115 | 32.5 -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 23.5 -110 | 23.5 -120 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 62.5 -120 | 62.5 -115 |
| Durham Smythe | 19.5 -120 | 19.5 -110 |
| Tyreek Hill | 80.5 -115 | 80.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Mac Jones | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 24.5 -110 | 24.5 -120 |
| Raheem Mostert | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -120 |
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Dolphins are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 140% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Dolphins are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Dolphins are 2-6 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2022 season — 10th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have intercepted 19 passes since the 2022 season — third-most in NFL.
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) when playing in cold weather since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
The Dolphins were 5-2 (.714) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2022 season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Dolphins were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception in the 2022 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .388.
The Patriots were winless (0-8) when allowing 22 or more points in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .273.
The Patriots were winless (0-4) when committing 2 or more turnovers in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .296.
The Patriots were 2-4 (.333) when within 7 points at the two minute warning in the 2022 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Patriots RBs have averaged 8.2 targets per game since Week 12 of the 2022 Season — tied for third-highest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 5.8 receptions per game to RBs since Week 12 of the 2022 Season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Patriots are averaging 6.3 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — second-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 5.6 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have rushed the ball on just 40.4% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone since the 2022 season — fifth-lowest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2022 season — second-fewest in NFL.
Dolphins WRs have 217.9 receiving yards per game since Week 12 of the 2022 Season — second-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged 185.1 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since Week 12 of the 2022 Season — second-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have rushed for 1,764 yards since the 2022 season — fifth-fewest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 1,889 yards rushing since the 2022 season — fifth-fewest in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins had 8 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 1 — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 25 of 56 plays (45%) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 5 of 18 plays (28%) on 3rd and short since Week 12 of the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Dolphins went three and out 4 times in the 2nd quarter in the 2022 season — tied for fewest in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the red zone since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Patriots have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 35% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the red zone in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 72% of rush attempts in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
20% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
20% of the plays run against the Dolphins have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
37% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots defense has allowed 14 rushing TDs on 128 carries (9.1 Carries Per TD) in the red zone since the 2021 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 23% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
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