- The Dolphins are a 4-point home underdog against the Chargers.
- The Dolphins have lost 10 straight games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- My Dolphins vs Chargers prediction depends on the Chargers’ injury news.
The reeling Chargers aim to get right off two straight losses in Week 6 against the Dolphins.
Los Angeles lost 27-10 as home favorites against the Commanders in Week 5. That came after a road loss to the Giants, with the Chargers now tied for the AFC West lead.
Miami fell 27-24 as road favorites to the Panthers last week. It briefly ended a win for the Dolphins against the Jets in Week 5, with Miami now sitting at 1-4.
Bet on Dolphins vs. Chargers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Dolphins vs. Chargers: NFL Week 6 Odds
Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction
Monday, October 6
If Joe Alt plays for the Chargers against Miami, my Dolphins vs Chargers prediction is the Chargers Spread (-4.5, -110).
Chargers running back Omarian Hampton is on IR for at least four games, and Najee Harris is already out for the season.
If Alt plays, it likely lessens the impact of those absences. What’s concerning, though, is that Los Angeles has driven success this season via the run.
Through five games, Los Angeles ranks ninth in rush offense DVOA compared to 20th through the air.
All around, Jim Harbaugh’s team ranks 19th in total offensive DVOA. Now they get a Dolphins defense last in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Granted, Miami has played the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Miami is BAD against the pass, though. Only the Jets own a worse pass defense DVOA rating than Miami. But without Alt, Los Angeles could struggle to protect Herbert.
It’s also a good spot for the defense, which comfortably outranks Miami’s offensive DVOA output:
- Chargers: 18th in defensive DVOA, 18th-hardest set of offenses
- Dolphins: 20th in offensive DVOA, 28th-hardest set of defenses
If you’re someone who likes backing trends, it’s a great spot to buy low on the Chargers.
Since 2019, road favorites at -2.5 or higher that closed a favorite the previous week are 43-13-1 ATS (76.8%), assuming two factors:
- The team’s previous game margin is -3 or higher
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -11 and +21
Despite that success, I’ll wait to see what team the Chargers are sending out on Sunday.
Betting Dolphins vs. Chargers: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 65% | 44% | 59% | 52% |
| Dolphins | 35% | 56% | 41% | 48% |
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
