- The Dolphins are currently a 2.5-point home favorite against the Patriots.
- The Dolphins have won eight of their last nine games against the Patriots.
- My Dolphins vs Patriots prediction is for the Dolphins to cover the spread.
For its first AFC East contest of 2025, the Dolphins host the Patriots.
Week 1 proved a struggle for both Miami and New England. The Dolphins lost 33-8 against the Colts, while the Patriots fell 20-13 as home favorites to the Raiders.
For Miami, Week 2 offers an opportunity to extend a winning streak against New England. In the last nine head-to-head meetings, Miami is 8-1 SU against the Patriots.
Bet on Dolphins vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Dolphins vs. Patriots: NFL Week 2 Odds
Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction
Monday, September 8
Based on Sunday’s performances, I’m changing my opinion of this game from the lookahead line. For my Dolphins vs Patriots prediction, I like the Dolphins Spread (-1.5, -110).
Ultimately, I’ll wait for injury reports to emerge before making a final decision on this game. To side with Miami, Christian Gonzalez has to miss the game for the Patriots.
I get the Dolphins look like they’ve quit. I also recognize they’re basically sending you, dear reader, out to play cornerback.
Miami made Daniel Jones look like the second coming of Peyton Manning. Can they do the same to Drake Maye? Time will tell.
Two advantages exist for the Dolphins. First, the Patriots offensive line appears to be a big problem. Second, New England’s corner group also leaves much to be desired.
A silver lining also emerges from Miami’s Week 1 game at Indianapolis.
Albeit on only 12 rushes, Miami produced a 60% rush success rate on plays excluding turnovers.
Miami achieved 6.5 yards per carry, a figure bettered by only Baltimore and Washington.
If the Dolphins can find a way to keep their defense off the field, I like the hosts to cover a short number.
Wednesday, September 3
Based on the lookahead line and Vrabel’s success as an underdog, my initial Dolphins vs Patriots prediction is the Patriots Spread (+2.5, -110).
The strategy regarding this matchup is to wait until Sunday evening. If my assumptions about Patriots vs Raiders and Colts vs Dolphins are right, this line could reach +3 or higher.
If it reaches the key number, bettors are getting a coach in Vrabel who excels ATS at that number.
For his career, Vrabel is 25-14-2 ATS at +3 or higher, including 12-6-2 between +3 and +4.
Additionally, history suggests it’s a good spot to back New England. Essentially, backing early underdogs requires a situation where both teams missed the playoffs.
Since ‘05, road dogs in games 1-2 are 43-14-4 (76.8%) ATS, assuming three additional factors:
- Both teams missed the playoffs the previous year
- The underdog won between 4 and 6 games the prior year
- The spread falls between +1 and +6.5
The tricky part with that system? Dogs fall to only 11-7-4 ATS between +1.5 and +3.
Accordingly, I’d want the Patriots at +3.5 or higher in an ideal world.
Betting Dolphins vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 61% | 80% | 74% | 60% |
| Dolphins | 39% | 20% | 26% | 40% |
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