Eagles vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 17

BetMGM Betting Dec 27, 2025, 11:11 AM

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A Buffalo Bills helmet sits on the turf next to a couple of footballs prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

The Bills are -1.5 point favorites vs the Eagles
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Philadelphia Eagles (10-5-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (11-4-0) on Dec. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Eagles vs. Bills Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Eagles vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Eagles vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 54.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Eagles vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Eagles will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Eagles players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Eagles Player Prop Bets Today

Jalen Hurts has hit the Carries Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Saquon Barkley has hit the Longest Rush Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 50% ROI)
Jalen Hurts has hit the Interceptions Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
DeVonta Smith has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Jahan Dotson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 67% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 70% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 67% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)
Ty Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Eagles Best Bets:

The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+4.05 Units / 10% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 21% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 47% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.02 Units / 24% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 20% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.65 Units / 18% ROI)

Eagles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Eagles are 9-6 (+2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Eagles are 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -5.42% ROI
Eagles are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI
Eagles are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 7-8 (-1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI).

Bills are 11-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -3.25% ROI
Bills are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI
Bills are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI

Philadelphia Eagles: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills have averaged 7.8 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bills have averaged 8.6 yards per play against a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.4.

The Bills have thrown the ball 33% of the time (139 Pass Attempts/417 plays) on 1st down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Bills ran successful plays on 79% of plays in the 1st half in Week 16 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have averaged 11.0 yards per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Eagles have gone three and out 19 times in the 2nd quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Eagles have averaged 5.6 yards per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3.1.

The Eagles have averaged 0.48 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.

Additional Matchup Notes for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills