- The Eagles are a 7-point home favorite against the Cowboys.
- The Eagles have won each of their last 11 home games.
- My Eagles vs Cowboys prediction is for Dallas to cover the spread.
To kick off the 2025 NFL season, the Super Bowl champion Eagles host the Cowboys.
Philadelphia pummeled Dallas in their head-to-head meetings last season. Across both meetings, Philadelphia surrendered only 13 points in a 75-13 cumulative margin.
This time around, Dallas will feature Dak Prescott at quarterback against Philadelphia. In his career, Prescott posted a 9-4 SU record against the Eagles.
Bet on Eagles vs. Cowboys and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Eagles vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 1 Odds
Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction
Based on Dallas’ improved offense behind Prescott and the presumed betting trends for this game, my Eagles vs Cowboys prediction is the Cowboys Spread (+7, -105).
An argument exists to wait on this number as the game gets closer. Given the juice is -105, the Cowboys could reach +7.5, north of a key number.
Either way, it’s the Cowboys or nothing for me on opening night.
Last season, Dallas fell to 24th in total DVOA from fourth in 2023, according to ftnfantasy.com.
What went wrong? Dallas fell 19 spots in defensive DVOA and 16 spots in offensive DVOA.
The offensive record is easily explained by Prescott missing nine games, including both against Philly. Additionally, only eight teams lost more adjusted games on defense than Dallas.
That likely inflates the public’s perception of a Cowboys team that missed the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s likely we see Philadelphia tied to a number of moneyline parlays and teasers.
But this is an Eagles team that has struggled to cover the spread as a big favorite. Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts are 7-13-2 ATS at -6.5 or higher, per Action Network’s Bet Labs.
Prescott has also performed decently as a big underdog. Although both qualifying games came in 2018, Prescott finished 2-0 ATS at +7 or higher in his career.
While recency bias suggests Philadelphia’s offense possesses dominant traits, let’s remember this team struggled last season.
Kellen Moore departed an offense that ranked 13th in offensive DVOA against the easiest set of defenses.
The defense also lost a number of key pieces in free agency. Milton Williams, C.J. Gardner Johnson, Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff all depart for new teams.
Are the Eagles still a top-10 defense? Probably. But I trust a revamped Cowboys offense with competent quarterback play to keep this game within a touchdown.
Betting Eagles vs. Cowboys: NFL Public Betting
*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 65% | 55% | 61% | 40% |
| Eagles | 35% | 45% | 39% | 60% |
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