Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for the championship round based on NFL odds at BetMGM.
The AFC Championship pits the Broncos against the Patriots. Oddsmakers currently rate Denver as a sizable home underdog after the team lost Bo Nix to a fractured ankle.
For the NFC Championship, the Seahawks host the Rams in an NFC West rubber match. Seattle throttled San Francisco 41-6 on Saturday while Los Angeles won 20-17 in Chicago.
Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
NFL Playoff Predictions Today: AFC & NFC Championship
Broncos vs Patriots Prediction: Total Over 41.5 Points (-110)
Based on Denver’s defensive struggles against good offenses and New England’s weakness through the air, my Broncos vs Patriots prediction is Over 40.5 Points (-115).
By most metrics, Denver owns one of the league’s best defenses. However, the unit has struggled against the league’s best offenses.
Green Bay racked up 26 points against the Broncos. During the regular season, Green Bay ranked two spots behind New England in pass offense DVOA.
In Denver, the Jaguars, Bills and Giants all cleared 29.5 against the Broncos.
If there’s a slight concern, it’s that Drake Maye’s hardest defensive opponents have come at home. That said, I trust this offense enough to exploit this secondary.
Meanwhile, the Broncos offense appears well-suited to take advantage of New England’s defense.
Going from Nix to Stidham is obviously a downgrade. However, Stidham goes up against a pass defense that ranked 25th in DVOA during the season.
New England’s defense looked competent on Sunday. But it’s extremely important to remember that they played a Texans unit without Nico Collins.
Houston also lost Dalton Schultz early, and C.J. Stroud appeared to be dealing with an injury.
I trust Sean Payton to design a scheme that gets Stidham’s receivers open. Plus, it should not go unnoticed that Houston forced three turnovers from Maye.
The Denver pass rush offers a similar test for Maye. During the regular season, Denver ranked third in pass-rush win rate.
Turnovers could lead to short fields, which benefits the Broncos offense. If that occurs, I trust the hosts to contribute to the total.
Seahawks vs Rams Prediction: Los Angeles Rams Spread (+3, -118)
Based on the market’s perception of the Seahawks and the Rams’ offensive success against Seattle, my Seahawks vs Rams prediction is the Rams Spread (+3, -118).
This line opened Seattle -2.5 juiced -110. My opinion is that the line is moving in the wrong direction.
Los Angeles closed +2.5 in Seattle earlier this year. Accordingly, the logical question to ask: are the Rams a worse team than they were in Week 16?
I’d argue the answer is almost certainly no. The offense played without Davante Adams in that game, and the defense played without Quentin Lake.
Lake’s absence almost certainly impacted Los Angeles’s ability to defend a 16-point lead. Additionally, Seattle required – essentially – divine intervention to erase that deficit.
The best unit on the field is the Rams offense. During the regular season, Los Angeles led the NFL in offensive DVOA while facing the fourth-hardest set of defenses.
Sean McVay’s unit also posted the lowest variance in the NFL.
Seattle led the NFL in defensive DVOA, having faced the fourth-hardest set of offenses. However, only four defenses posted higher variance than Seattle.
From Week 1-15, Los Angeles averaged +0.156 EPA per play. In Week 16 – without Adams – they posted a +0.202 output.
Los Angeles kicked two field goals from inside the Seattle 10-yard line during that game. Turning either one into a touchdown certainly changes the game outcome.
Seattle has no personnel absentees to point to in that game. Additionally, bettors have seen this defense struggle against good rushing attacks.
Mike Macdonald’s team barely beat the Colts 18-16 while allowing 102 yards on the ground. The Rams also succeeded on the ground, rushing for 124 in Week 16.
At minimum, I predict the Rams stay within this number against an inflated Seahawks team.
Broncos vs Patriots Prediction: Denver Broncos Moneyline (+210)
Based on New England’s offensive inefficiency last week and Denver’s home-field advantage, my Broncos vs Patriots prediction is the Broncos Moneyline (+210).
So much of the focus is on Denver’s quarterback situation. It’s my perspective that’s causing bettors to lose sight of a key advantage for the Broncos.
New England won last week despite three Maye turnovers. The offensive line also surrendered five sacks to their second-year quarterback.
Denver could easily replicate Houston’s pass rush success. As referenced earlier, the defense ranks third in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN.
Only four quarterbacks saw more pressured dropbacks than Maye this year. Opposing defenses sacked only one quarterback (Jaxson Dart) more times than Maye.
This game marks Maye’s first of the year on the road against a defense owning a sack percentage north of 9%.
New England narrowly beat Atlanta 24-23 at home despite a -2 turnover margin and six sacks allowed. They beat Cleveland 32-13 at home, despite allowing six sacks once again.
It’s scary to think about how traveling to a hostile environment might change those metrics.
NFL Playoff Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks
Check back later in the week for NFL public betting data on the championship round games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages.
Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.
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