NFL Expert Picks Week 10: Rams Get Revenge at 49ers

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 10 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate begins with an AFC West clash: Broncos vs Raiders on Thursday Night Football. The matchup offers Denver a chance to bolster its lead atop the division. 

Another AFC West team features on Sunday Night Football in Chargers vs Steelers. For Mike Tomlin’s team, it’s a chance to grab a second straight win after a victory over Indianapolis. 

The slate closes with Packers vs Eagles on MNF. Philadelphia enters the game off a bye while the Packers aim to overcome an outright loss as 13.5-point favorites against Carolina. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 10 Predictions

49ers vs Rams Prediction: Los Angeles Rams Spread (-3, -120)

Based on San Francisco’s defensive injuries and the team’s luck at Los Angeles, my 49ers vs Rams prediction is the Los Angeles Rams Spread (-3, -120). 

San Francisco finished its road trip 1-1. However, both games produced concerning defensive performances. 

Both Houston (19th in offensive DVOA) and the Giants (24th) scored 24 or more against the Niners defense. 

As it stands, that unit is facing myriad injuries. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are done for the year. Bryce Huff is missing time. And now the team has to contend with a Mykel Williams injury. 

That should cause trouble against a good Rams offense. Excluding Week 9, the Rams ranked third in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Even more glaring? San Francisco entered Week 9 ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams ranked sixth in the corresponding offensive category. 

Lastly, history tells us to immediately sell short underdogs after a cover. 

Since 2017, previous favorites that now fall between +3 and +4 are 20-54-3 ATS, assuming two additional factors:

• The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +3 and +26
• The underdog’s previous ATS margin falls between +0.5 and +37

Given those factors, I predict the Rams get revenge for Week 5 and cover the spread. 

Packers vs Eagles Prediction: Total Under 45 Points (-110)

Based on the Packers’ offensive injury issues and Philadelphia’s extended rest, my Packers vs Eagles prediction is the Total Under 45 Points (-110). 

Red zone issues plagued the Packers against the Panthers. That contributed to the team scoring only 13 points against one of the league’s worst defenses. 

Now they get the Eagles, who are coming off extended rest. Green Bay could play without both Tucker Kraft and Matthew Golden in the matchup, further complicating the offense. 

Philly has also addressed team needs by acquiring Michael Carter and Jaire Alexander. Those additions help create a sell spot against an inexperienced Packers offense. 

Green Bay entered Week 9 seventh in offensive DVOA. However, it came against the 25th-hardest set of defenses. 

For all of Philadelphia’s defensive issues this season, it’s worth noting they’ve played the league’s eighth-hardest set of offenses. 

On the opposite side of the ball, Philly’s offensive advantage is mitigated by Green Bay’s defense. 

The Eagles enter Monday’s game eighth in pass offense DVOA compared to 13th on the ground. 

Defensively, Green Bay entered Week 9 fifth and 10th in the respective defensive metrics. 

Lastly, unders have produced a positive return on investment when both teams play on extra rest. 

Since 2018, totals between 42 and 45.5 are 41-12-1 to the under when both teams have eight or more days between games. 

Panthers vs Saints Prediction: New Orleans Saints Spread (+5.5, -110)

Based on the Saints’ overly difficult defensive schedule and their success stopping the run, my Panthers vs Saints prediction is the New Orleans Saints Spread (+5.5, -110). 

By most traditional metrics, the Saints defense rates out terribly. However, those must be taken with a heavy dose of salt. 

No team has played a harder set of offenses than the Saints, according to ftnfantasy.com. Wildly, New Orleans still ranks 13th in rush defense DVOA. 

That sets the team up well to defend Carolina’s strength. Entering Week 10, the Panthers rank ninth in rush DVOA and 30th in pass offense. 

Carolina is also dealing with major injuries along the offensive line. That could deter their ground efforts against a decent rush defense. 

If the rushing attack stops working, there is a minimal chance that Bryce Young balls out and leads Carolina to victory. 

New Orleans runs a primarily zone-heavy defense. Amongst 32 quarterbacks with 180 snaps against zone, Young ranks 30th in DVOA. 

Finally, there’s the matter that Carolina has run extremely lucky. Historically, Dave Canales’ team fits the mold of a team that fails to cover. 

Since 2003, home favorites between -6 and -4 are 4-21 ATS, assuming two factors:

• The team’s win percentage is 51% or higher
• The team’s Pythagorean win percentage is 49% or lower

Also worth noting: those teams finished 10-15 SU in those 25 contests. 

Jets vs Browns Prediction: Jets 1H Team Total Under 9.5 Points (-120)

Based on Cleveland’s extended rest and their extreme matchup advantage over New York’s defense, my Jets vs Browns prediction is the Jets 1H Team Total Under 9.5 (-120). 

Cleveland enters this game sixth in defensive DVOA, including first against the run. Even more outstanding is that Cleveland recorded that record while facing the 11th-hardest set of offenses. 

A lot has been made of Cleveland’s home/road defensive splits this season. At home, Jim Schwartz’s defense has allowed 19.2 fewer points per game. 

However, most of that discrepancy comes after halftime. Cleveland ranks 10th in first-half points allowed (9.8), including 7.7 at home and 11 on the road. 

Only the Bengals, Ravens and Lions have cleared this benchmark in the first half against Cleveland. All three rank 13th or better in offensive DVOA. 

Now the defense gets a massive reprieve away from home. Entering Sunday’s game, the Jets rank 27th in offensive DVOA, having played the third-easiest set of defenses. 

New York ranks T-31st in first-half points per game with seven. No increase occurs when the team plays at home. 

Through eight games, the Jets overtook this number twice. First came in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, and the second came in Week 8 against Cincinnati. 

Everyone knows the Bengals defense is bad, rendering it an unsurprising outcome. Pittsburgh offers some resistance, but struggles to defend the run. 

Without that benefit for the Jets, I predict a slow start by the offense on Sunday. 

NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

A number of Week 10 games feature lopsided betting splits in favor of one team. This week, all but three games feature a side receiving at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread.

As of Friday morning, six teams have received over 78% of bets placed to cover:

• Indianapolis Colts (-6.5): 82% of bets placed
• Detroit Lions (-8): 82% of bets placed
• Carolina Panthers (-5.5): 81% of bets placed
• Buffalo Bills (-9.5): 81% of bets placed
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): 79% of bets placed
• Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5): 78% of bets placed

Get all NFL public betting data on all Week 10 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. 

Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.