NFL Expert Picks Week 17: Bears Stay Alive for No. 1 Seed

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 17 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

With three Christmas games in the books, bettors are left with 13 games over three days for the remainder of Week 17.

Two are scheduled for Saturday: Chargers vs. Texans and Packers vs. Ravens. Then, 49ers vs Bears takes place on Sunday Night Football, with Falcons vs Rams closing on MNF. 

Let’s dive into the predictions. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 17 Predictions

Panthers vs Seahawks Prediction: Carolina Panthers Spread (+7, -110)

Based on Seattle’s regressive offensive metrics and the Panthers’ ATS success at home, my Panthers vs Seahawks prediction is the Carolina Panthers Spread (+7, -110). 

Seattle won the game of the year, nay, the decade last year. Everything had to go right for Mike Macdonald’s team to win 38-37 against the Rams. 

An argument could be made that the game doesn’t matter for Carolina. After all, the team wins the division with a win at Tampa Bay in Week 18. 

But I can’t fathom this number. Seattle closed -6.5 against the Falcons, and there’s simply no way the Panthers are a point worse than Atlanta. 

This season, Carolina is 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. The lone failure came against Buffalo, which ran for 245 yards against the Panthers. 

Without accounting for Week 16, Buffalo outpaces Seattle by 20 spots in rush offense DVOA. 

That’s not to mention the injury issues for Seattle. 

Charles Cross remains a question while multiple players in the secondary – Riq Woolen, Coby Bryant and Nick Emmanwori – could also miss Sunday’s game. 

All of those issues come before we get to Seattle’s offensive issues. Since Week 13, the offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 12th in success rate. 

Given those factors, I predict the Panthers stay within a touchdown at home. 

Raiders vs Giants Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline (-115)

Based on Las Vegas’ success running the ball against Houston and the Giants’ injury concerns, my Raiders vs Giants prediction is the Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline (-115). 

The top pick in next April’s NFL Draft is (potentially) on the line here. That leads me to my first theory – should the Giants even want to win the game? 

Andrew Thomas left Sunday’s game against Minnesota with a hamstring injury. He’s basically the only good offensive lineman for the Giants going up against a strong Raiders defensive line. 

Vegas performed well against the Texans on Sunday. As 14.5-point pups, Pete Carroll’s team lost by two in a game where yards per play finished 5.9-4.4 for the visitors. 

Ashton Jeanty, against a really good Houston run defense, cleared 100 yards for the first time since Week 4. Now he gets a Giants defense dead last in rush defense DVOA. 

Vegas has produced mixed results against bad rush defenses this year. They lost by 17 to Dallas (good offense) and fell by a point at home to the Bears. 

If the Raiders can run the ball effectively, it takes pressure off Geno Smith. In good news, Houston sacked Smith only three times on Sunday. 

For a quarterback who was sacked four or more times in seven games this year, that’s at least an improvement. 

In a presumed positive game script, I trust the Raiders’ pass rush more against a depleted line. Given those factors, I predict the Raiders win outright come Sunday. 

49ers vs Bears Prediction: Chicago Bears (+600) to Be NFC #1 Seed

Based on Chicago’s rest advantage in this game and my lack of faith in the Seahawks, my 49ers vs Bears prediction is for the Bears to Earn the NFC’s No. 1 Seed (+600). 

The price would suggest this is unlikely. But the Bears actually have a clearer path to the top seed than the Rams (+425). 

Seattle earns the top seed by finishing 2-0. But they’re facing a pesky Panthers team in Week 17 that could clinch the NFC South with a win and Bucs loss at Miami. 

The Niners also have a clearer path to the top seed. Even if they lose on MNF to Indianapolis, San Francisco claims the top seed with wins over Chicago and Seattle. 

The Rams face a more difficult path to the top seed. Here’s how Los Angeles clinches the spot:

• Rams: Wins over Falcons and Cardinals
• Seahawks: Lose to Panthers, Beat 49ers
• 49ers: Beat Colts and Bears, Lose to Seahawks
• Bears: Lose to 49ers, Win/Loss vs. Detroit

That’s a lot to happen for a +425 price when Seattle, San Francisco and Chicago all face easier paths. 

In terms of the analysis for this contest, the Bears enter with a net rest advantage over San Francisco. 

Playing overtime on Saturday likely harms that edge, but it’s still a short week for the Niners off a road MNF game. 

Additionally, the 49ers defense leaves so much to be desired. San Francisco ranks 25th in defensive DVOA, including 27th against the run. 

Since losing Fred Warner, the Niners’ run defense has imploded. In Weeks 1-6: 44.9% rush success rate. From Week 7 onward: 49.4%, the second-worst mark in the league. 

I still don’t trust the Bears defense, but the team can surely run the ball. Since Week 6, Chicago ranks second in rushing success rate. Only 0.7% separates the Bears from the Rams.  

By Week 18, the Bears could face an eliminated Lions defense that got boatraced by a bad Steelers run game. 

All of that leads me to believe there’s a higher chance for this prediction than a 14% implied probability. 

Titans vs Saints Prediction: New Orleans Saints Spread (-2.5, -115) | Chris Olave Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Based on New Orleans’ matchup advantage on offense and their strong defensive record, my Titans vs Saints prediction is the Saints Spread (-2.5, -115). 

New Orleans will try for a fourth straight win on Sunday, while the Titans are going for a second straight win. 

After turning to Tyler Shough, the Saints’ passing game has improved. In Weeks 1-8, the passing offense ranked 30th in dropback EPA and 18th in success rate. 

Since Week 9, those rankings have risen to 18th and 14th, respectively. And over the last three games: 11th and 13th. 

The offense now gets a Titans pass defense ranked 27th in DVOA and 28th in dropback EPA.

It’s worth noting that the Titans defense has faced the second-hardest set of offenses. But I also trust the New Orleans defense in this spot. 

Brandon Staley currently coordinates a unit ranked 13th in DVOA against the seventh-hardest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

All of New Orleans’ successes this season have come when the defense shines. When the unit allows 20 or fewer points, the Saints are 5-1 SU. Otherwise: 0-9. 

Even more concerning for the Titans? The Saints directly counter how they succeed on offense. Tennessee’s 2-1 record over the last three came while averaging 161.3 yards on the ground. 

But the Saints defense ranks 10th in rush defense DVOA and third in rush EPA per play. If Tennessee can’t run the ball, I question how the offense moves the ball. 

Given those factors, I predict New Orleans covers the spread for a fifth straight game. 

As for the player prop prediction, Tennessee ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1s. For the season, they’re allowing 73.3 yards to the position. 

Now they’re getting Olave, who notched 148 receiving yards last week against the Jets. Over his last six games, Olave cleared this number four times. 

Currently, seven teams own a 20% pass defense DVOA rating or higher. Olave has faced three of those defenses, clearing this number twice. 

The lone failure came with Devaughn Vele playing for New Orleans. Last week, Olave saw 16 targets without Vele – only one other player saw more than eight. 

Accordingly, I predict Olave clears this line for a second straight contest. 

NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Very few Week 17 games feature relatively close betting splits. For the remaining games, all but one feature at least one team receiving at least 60% of bets to cover the spread.

Three of those games see the favorite draw over 76% of bets to cover the spread:

• Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals: 80% of bets placed
• New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans: 76% of bets placed
• Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts: 76% of bets placed

Get all NFL public betting data on all Week 17 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, find betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.