NFL Week 4 Picks 2026: Bets Include Rams & Patriots Moneyline

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 4 based on NFL odds at BetMGM.

Odds for predictions are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 4 2026

Giants vs Cardinals Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Moneyline (-112)

Based on New York’s mounting injuries and their cumulative offensive success on Sunday, my Giants vs Cardinals prediction is the Cardinals Moneyline (-112).

The best unit on the field is the Cardinals offense. The worst unit on the field is the Giants defense, which is now without Brian Burns for the season.

Excluding turnovers, Arizona ranks 19th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 11th in offensive success rate. Additionally, the team ranks T-11th in red zone chances.

Take out a Week 2 game against a rested Seahawks defense and Arizona’s success rate rises to 50.2%.

Games against the Chargers and 49ers also saw the Cardinals boast a 52% dropback success rate.

Don’t let Sunday’s box score fool you against the 49ers. Arizona bested San Francisco 5-2 in red zone opportunities and posted a 52% offensive success rate.

What is concerning about the Giants is that they let Cam Ward move the ball on their secondary. Plus, turnovers contributed to a narrow victory over a bad team.

Tennessee reached the red zone three times, but only one visit resulted in a touchdown. Tennessee’s other drives ended with a turnover on downs and late interception, making New York’s defense look better.

Jacoby Brissett will not repeat Cam Ward’s errors. It leads me to predict that the Cardinals hand the Giants a loss as road favorites.

Eagles vs Rams Prediction: Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (-125)

Based on the Rams’ impressive offensive metrics and the Eagles’ poor defensive metrics, my Eagles vs Rams prediction is the Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (-125).

Do you remember this game last year? Los Angeles led 26-7 with 14 minutes left in the third quarter. Jalen Hurts proceeded to morph into the greatest quarterback ever, leading a comeback to win 33-27.

Here’s the issue: Hurts is now playing with a middling defense. In games against Washington and Tennessee, the Eagles rank 17th in defensive DVOA, including 19th against the run.

Through two games, Philly’s 45.6% rush defense success rate allowed ranks 28th in the league. The Rams, meanwhile, rushed very well against their first three opponents.

Sean McVay’s offense ranks seventh in rushing success rate through three games. It should lead them to exploit the Eagles’ defense on short rest.

Most encouraging is the potential buy-low spot on the Rams, who experienced a fluky Week 3 loss.

Denver beat the Rams 30-26, despite the Rams leading 16-0 at halftime. A Matthew Stafford pick six swung the game in Denver’s favor along with some questionable-at-best officiating.

Los Angeles allowed a 39.1% defensive success rate in Week 3, including a 32.7% early down success rate.

Presumably, Puka Nacua could return for Sunday’s game. It leads me to predict the Rams bounce back and win following a game where they clearly finished as the better team.

Bengals vs Jaguars Prediction: Total Over 51 Points (-120)

Given Jacksonville’s turnover reliance on defense and the Bengals’ weak defensive metrics in Pittsburgh, my Bengals vs Jaguars prediction is the Total Over 51 Points (-120).

I liked this line a lot better when it opened at 49.5 points. Now it’s sitting on a key number (51) with odds suggesting it could continue to climb.

If it does cross to 51.5, I would pivot and start to look at a Bengals team total market. Ultimately, the crux of my belief in this prediction rests in a lack of faith in Jacksonville’s defense.

Jacksonville ranks second in defensive DVOA through three games. However, the Jaguars have played the softest schedule of opposing offenses: Cleveland, Denver and New England.

Turnovers, especially in the red zone, aided the Jaguars defense. In Denver, the Jaguars allowed 20 points and four red zone chances.

A Bo Nix interception in the end zone contributed to Jacksonville looking better. The same happened in Week 3, as Drake Maye threw a pick in the end zone.

On plays excluding turnovers, Jacksonville ranks 18th in both defensive EPA and success rate. Now, they’re facing a Bengals offense off its best performance of the season.

In Pittsburgh, the Bengals recorded a 24% offensive DVOA rating. Their 59.2% pass DVOA rating qualified as the first time above 16% all season.

But the Bengals defense delivered its worst defensive performance of the season. Week over week, the unit regressed from a -26.3% rating in Houston to a +27.1% rating in Pittsburgh.

Last year, these teams combined for 58 points even with Jake Browning playing a half. Out of 23 combined drives, the Jags and Bengals punted only five times.

It leads me to predict a high-scoring contest on Sunday in Cincinnati due to two weak secondaries.

Bills vs Patriots Prediction: New England Patriots Moneyline

Based on the Bills’ defensive struggles and bettors’ lack of interest in the Patriots, my Bills vs Patriots prediction is the New England Patriots Moneyline (+270).

I get it – Drake Maye looks absolutely awful. But are we really going to be so quick to judge after he played three games against top-11 defenses from 2025?

No one will be surprised to learn turnovers are what plagued Maye.

New England’s eight giveaways are tied with the Falcons. Mike Vrabel’s team currently possesses a -5 differential, which is second worst.

I want to focus on what happens outside those turnovers. New England, on plays excluding turnovers, ranks 15th in dropback EPA per play and 10th in dropback success rate.

Granted, the success rate falls to 45.9% in Week 3. But answer this question honestly: is the Bills’ secondary better than the Jaguars’ secondary?

I’d argue the answer is no, especially after Christian Benford left with an injury on Sunday. Bettors will also do well to remember the Bills ran extremely lucky in two of three wins.

In Week 1, Buffalo won 36-31 despite a -7.6% net success rate against Houston. In Week 3, Buffalo beat the Chargers 24-16 despite a +3.2% net success rate.

I’ve left a game convinced by the Bills once: Detroit in Week 2 (+10% net success rate). It came against one of the league’s worst defenses playing on a short week off overtime.

The Patriots, despite some regression, remain an outstanding defense. Last year, New England held the Bills to 20 points in Buffalo with Milton Williams available. Without him, they allowed 35.

No betting interest exists on the Patriots either. As I write this, 82% of straight ATS bets are backing Buffalo to cover. A whopping 88% of straight moneyline bets are on the Bills.

That comes despite the Bills playing awful football in Week 3. If Maye can clean up some of the turnover regression, I predict the Patriots exploit a bad Bills defense and win outright on Sunday.

Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs Over 27.5 Points (+115)

Based on the Raiders’ lackluster defensive performance in Week 3 and easy schedule so far, my Raiders vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Over 27.5 Points (+115).

We finally saw the Raiders defense break in Week 3. As a 3.5-point underdog to the Saints, Las Vegas allowed 27 points and a 7.7% defensive DVOA rating.

Comparatively, the Raiders averaged 13.5 points per game allowed and a -19.3% DVOA rating against the Dolphins and Chargers.

Through three games, the Raiders have faced the second-easiest set of offenses. By last year’s data, the defense has yet to play a game against a top-20 DVOA offense.

What is concerning for the Raiders is that Week 3 could have gone so much worse.

In the fourth quarter, the Saints turned the ball over on all four offensive drives. Three came in Raiders territory.

Excluding turnovers, the Raiders finished with the third-worst defensive success rate in Week 3.

Now the Raiders defense returns home to face its hardest opponent to date. Kansas City ranks fourth in offensive DVOA through three games, 15 spots ahead of the Saints.

Andy Reid’s offense finished with 24 points in humid Miami. What is hidden within that output is that Kansas City left opportunities on the table.

The Chiefs reached Miami’s red zone five times, converting three into touchdowns.

In the second quarter, the Chiefs turned the ball over on downs from the Dolphins’ 12-yard line. In the third quarter, the Chiefs backed up from first-and-goal from the eight into a field goal.

Buoyed by Kenneth Walker III, the Chiefs have yet to amass fewer than five red zone chances in any game this season.

With so many unknowns around the Raiders defense, I predict the Chiefs clear their team total at a higher rate than these odds imply.

Lions vs Panthers Prediction: Detroit Lions Over 27.5 Points (-110)

Based on Detroit’s excellent offensive metrics so far and Carolina’s injury absentees, my Lions vs Panthers prediction is the Lions Over 27.5 Points (-110).

Detroit scored 31 points in each of its first three games. While the offense required overtime to reach that figure against New Orleans, the unit posted dominant metrics in the last two games.

Drew Petzing’s offense scored 31 as a 5.5-point underdog in Buffalo. Last week, Jared Goff led a dominant second-half performance as the Lions scored 31 against the Jets.

Carolina kept two straight opponents under this benchmark. However, doing so against Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson hardly qualifies as an accomplishment.

Detroit’s offense looks more comparable to the Bears’. In Week 1, Chicago raced out to 59 points against the Panthers defense.

More concerning for Carolina’s defense are two key injuries. The team placed corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve only days before playing an elite passing game.

The Lions posted a 9.4% pass offense DVOA rating in Week 1. In Weeks 2 and 3, the unit averaged a +38.9% pass offense DVOA average.

Plus, the Panthers already rank 23rd in rush defense DVOA. In Week 4, they’ll face a Lions offense ranked second in the corresponding offensive category.

Pair those already concerning metrics with Carolina’s injuries and I predict the Lions clear this line for a fourth straight game.

NFL Week 4 Predictions By Public Consensus

Get up-to-date NFL public betting data on all Week 4 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages.