NFL Expert Picks Week 9: Colts Offense Thrives at Steelers

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 9 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

Dolphins vs Ravens features as the first game on the slate. Presumably, the game marks the return of Lamar Jackson as the Ravens go for a second straight win. 

Other marquee matchups include Bills vs Chiefs in Buffalo, Commanders vs Seahawks on SNF and Cowboys vs Cardinals on MNF. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 9 Predictions

Texans vs Broncos Prediction: Broncos Team Total Under 19.5 Points (-110)

Based on Denver’s lack of experience against good defenses and Houston’s success against this number, my Texans vs Broncos prediction is the Broncos Under 19.5 Points (-110). 

Denver has cleared this benchmark in every game bar one this season. The Texans have kept all but two opponents under this number. 

Which unit breaks in Week 9? 

I predict it’s the Broncos, who have played easy defenses on repeat. Entering Week 8, Denver ranked 19th in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

However, it came against the fourth-easiest set of opposing defenses. 

That continued in Week 8. Denver scored 44 points against an injury-riddled Cowboys defense that entered 30th in defensive DVOA. 

Now Denver faces its first true test. Up until this point, the hardest defensive opponent ranked 16th in DVOA. Houston, exclusive of Week 8, ranks third. 

Houston broke against this number at Seattle and vs. Tampa Bay. Both rank inside the top-10 rated DVOA offenses. 

Denver’s offense looks good right now purely because of the opponents. Accordingly, I rate Sunday’s matchup a prime sell-high spot on Denver against one of the league’s best defenses. 

Steelers vs Colts Prediction: Colts Team Total Over 26.5 Points (-135)

Based on Pittsburgh’s inability to stop the run this season and Indianapolis’ success against bad defenses, my Steelers vs Colts Prediction is the Colts Team Total Over 26.5 Points (-135)

Perhaps this is the game where Indianapolis comes back down to Earth offensively. If it happens, bettors can undoubtedly chalk it up to Steelers turnover voodoo. 

Indy has cleared this number in every game bar one this season. That came against a Rams defense second in DVOA, which included A.D. Mitchell’s fumble at the goal line. 

Pittsburgh’s defense is fraudulent and has struggled tremendously against the run. 

The Steelers sit 24th in rush defense DVOA, 28th in rush EPA per play, 16th in rush success rate and 25th in run-stop win rate. 

Here are Indy’s corresponding offensive rankings: 1st, 1st, 5th, 3rd. 

Sunday’s game marks Pittsburgh’s third against a team 11th or better in rush EPA per play. In the previous two, they surrendered 32 to the Jets and 33 to the Bengals. 

That, in my estimation, defines the matchup here. Barring a complete no-show from Jonanthan Taylor, I predict the Colts offense continues its success at Pittsburgh. 

Steelers vs Colts Prediction: Indianapolis Colts Spread (-3, -115)

Based on Indy’s aforementioned prowess against the run and the offense’s lack of turnovers, my Steelers vs Colts prediction is the Colts Spread (-3, -115). 

A lot of the above analysis applies here. Pittsburgh can’t stop the run, and the Colts excel at running the football. 

The only game Shane Steichen’s team lost – or came close to losing this year – came against a strong rush defense. 

At the Rams – a result that could have easily flipped – Indy rushed for 85 yards. The Colts also needed a miraculous field goal to beat Denver. 

Pittsburgh is not playing on the level of those defenses. 

Of course, a world exists where the Steelers offense shines and beats the Colts in a shootout. To date, this is the second-hardest offense the Colts will have faced. 

But in a shootout, I trust the offense that has performed more consistently throughout the year. 

That’s the Colts, so I predict Indy extends its early ATS run to 7-2 on Sunday.

Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 1H Over 13.5 Points (-118)

Based on Buffalo’s potential defensive regression and Kansas City’s first-half offensive record, my Bills vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs 1H Over 13.5 Points (-118). 

Above all else, I want to sell Buffalo’s defense in this game. Ed Oliver, Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin are all out. Matt Milano could miss Sunday’s game, too. 

That puts an already weak Buffalo defense behind the eight ball. Entering Sunday’s game, Buffalo ranks 20th in defensive DVOA, having played the league’s third-easiest schedule. 

Buffalo’s defense has allowed 11 points per game in the first half, including 12.5 at home. That comes without playing a top-10 offense by DVOA yet. 

The closest comparison is Baltimore, which started Lamar Jackson in Week 1. Baltimore raced out to 20 first-half points in that matchup by halftime. 

Even the Saints (10) and Dolphins (14) moved the ball on Buffalo. Now they’re playing a Chiefs team that ranks second in offensive DVOA. 

While Kansas City stayed under this number on Monday, turnovers contributed to the failure. In that game, Kansas City turned the ball over twice before halftime….in Washington territory. 

Before that game, Kansas City cleared this benchmark in three of the previous four games. The lone failure saw the team land on 13. 

Based on those factors, I predict a strong start for the Chiefs offense in Orchard Park. 

Packers vs Panthers Prediction: Panthers 1H Under 7.5 Points (-150)

Based on Carolina’s lackluster road performances this season and Green Bay’s defensive strength, my Packers vs Panthers prediction is the Panthers 1H Under 7.5 Points (-150). 

The only concern here is that Green Bay returns home off a late SNF game. However, it remains the easiest test for an already strong defense. 

Green Bay has kept Detroit, Washington and Cincinnati to six COMBINED first-half points at Lambeau Field. 

The defense has struggled to travel – 11.3 first-half points allowed on the road – but remains a juggernaut at home. 

Carolina has averaged 7.3 first-half points this season, but the average drops to 5.5 away from home. 

The offense sits 26th in offensive DVOA through eight games. However, that record has come against the third-easiest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

In fairness to Carolina, the team notched 10 first-half points against Atlanta. Entering Week 9, Atlanta ranks two spots behind Green Bay in defensive DVOA. 

However, that matchup came at home, where Carolina performs much better. Away from home, Carolina has only cleared this number against the Jets (30th in defensive DVOA). 

Given Green Bay ranks as the hardest defense they’ve played away from home, I predict a slow start from the Panthers. 

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

A number of lopsided ATS percentages feature across Week 9’s slate. In fact, only three games feature a team getting under 70% of bets placed to cover the spread.

Here are the six teams receiving at least 80% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Detroit Lions (-8.5): 90% of bets placed
• Indianapolis Colts (-3): 89% of bets placed
• Dallas Cowboys (-2.5): 86% of bets placed
• Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5): 81% of bets placed
• San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): 80% of bets placed
• Los Angeles Rams (-14): 80% of bets placed

Get NFL public betting data on all Week 9 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. 

Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.