Falcons vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:50 AM
  • The Bengals (3-3) are -6.5 point favorites vs the Falcons (3-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (3-3) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) on Oct. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Bengals are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Bengals Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 7

  Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Falcons +6.5 -110 47.5 -110 +220
Bengals -6.5 -110 47.5 -110 -275

Falcons vs. Bengals Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this Week 7 game with 69.3% confidence.

Falcons vs Bengals Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 7 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Bengals, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Completions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI)

 

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Joe Mixon has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Joe Mixon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Joe Mixon has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Samaje Perine has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 71% ROI)

 

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bengals vs Falcons

Player Name Over Under
Ja’Marr Chase 79.5 -115 79.5 -115
Tee Higgins 75.5 -115 75.5 -120
Tyler Boyd 40.5 -115 40.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bengals vs Falcons

Player Name Over Under
Marcus Mariota 34.5 -115 34.5 -115

 

  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in their last 5 games (+8.15 Units / 146% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the Spread in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in their last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 103% ROI)

 

 

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 17 games (+14.85 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+11.70 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 3Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 64% ROI)

 

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 6-0 (+6 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Falcons are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 10.74% ROI
  • Falcons are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Falcons are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 4-2 (+1.75 Units / 26.32% ROI).

  • Bengals are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -33.22% ROI
  • Bengals are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.55 Units / -68.42% ROI
  • Bengals are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.54% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Falcons are winless (0-3) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .627.

The Falcons were 2-6 (.250) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Falcons are 1-3 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.

The Falcons are 3-2 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .413.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Bengals are 3-2 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .226.

The Bengals are 7-0 (1.000) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.1 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.

The Bengals are winless (0-2) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.

The Bengals are 5-3 (.625) when not forcing a turnover since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .256.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have a third down conversion rate of 48.9% this season — second-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 45.9% this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have thrown for 1,939 passing yards in 6 games (323.2 YPG) this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 330.5 passing yards per game this season — second-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have 51 touchdown passes since the 2021 season — fourth-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 43 passing TDs since the 2021 season — fourth-most in NFL.

The Falcons have thrown the ball just 36.9% of the time this season — second-lowest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed just 5.6 yards per dropback this season — fourth-best in NFL.

Falcons TEs have 70.7 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of66.2 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Falcons have scored on 50% of their drives in the first quarter this season — second-best in NFL. The Bengals defense has allowed scores on 56.2% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — third-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Falcons have run the ball on 58% of plays (237 carries/409 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 62% of pass attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 37% of the time (151 Pass Attempts/409 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Falcons have targeted WRs 47% of the time (337 Pass Attempts/724 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Bengals have 25 TDs that were 20+ yards since the 2021 season — tied for most in NFL.

The Bengals have started 9 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Bengals have gone three and out on 7% of their drives in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (18/593) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 36.4 pass attempts (291 Pass Attempts/8 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.1.

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 34.0 pass attempts (884 Pass Attempts/26 Sacks) since the 2021 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.8.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 27% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Offenses facing the Bengals targeted WRs 52% of the time (459 Pass Attempts/887 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Bengals defense has allowed a passer rating of just 58.6 when blitzing (34 Pass Attempts) this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.