Falcons vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 27, 2022, 10:28 AM
  • The Commanders (6-5) are -4 point favorites vs the Falcons (5-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 42 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (5-6) visit FedExField to take on the Washington Commanders (6-5) on Nov. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Landover.

The Commanders are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Commanders Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Falcons+4.5 -11041 -110+170
Commanders -4.5 -11041 -110-210

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this Week 12 game with 57.0% confidence.

Falcons vs Commanders Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 12 with 57.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Commanders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Drake London has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Antonio Gibson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jahan Dotson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Carson Wentz has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+8.05 Units / 118% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 7-4 (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).

  • Falcons are 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -6.18% ROI
  • Falcons are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Falcons are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 13.17% ROI).

  • Commanders are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 38.49% ROI
  • Commanders are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • Commanders are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Falcons are winless (0-3) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

The Falcons are 1-4 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .631.

The Falcons were 2-6 (.250) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Falcons are 5-3 (.625) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .775.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Commanders are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.5 sacks per game over that time span — third-worst in NFL.

The Commanders are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .591.

The Commanders are 4-2 (.667) on the road this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .453.

The Commanders are 2-13 (.133) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders

Commanders have rushed the ball on 68.6% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone since Week 7 — fifth-highest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since Week 7 — tied for most in NFL.

Commanders TEs have just 25.2 receiving yards per game since Week 7 — third-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed an average ofjust 30.8 receiving yards per game to TEs since Week 7 — tied for third-best in NFL.

Commanders TEs have 10 receptions in 4 games (just 2.5 per game) since Week 7 — third-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just 3.0 receptions per game to TEs since Week 7 — tied for second-best in NFL.

The Falcons have run 16.5% offensive plays in the red zone this season — fifth-best in NFL. Commanders has allowed their opponent to run 17.0% of plays in the red zone this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Falcons WRs have gained 1,224 yards on 88 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 13.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Falcons WRs averaged 8.0 yards after the catch last week — fourth-best in NFL. The Commanders allowed 8.5 yards after catch per reception to WRs in Week 10 — third-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Falcons have thrown the ball 39% of the time (251 Pass Attempts/638 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Falcons have thrown 60% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 28% of the time (81 Pass Attempts/290 plays) on 1st down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Falcons have gone three and out on 3% of their drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Commanders have started 42 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Commanders have started 15 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Commanders have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

The Falcons defense has hurried opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (35/1,010) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense has pressured opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Commanders defense has allowed 15 touchdown receptions to RBs since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays in the 1st half in Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Commanders defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 12 of 348 attempts (3%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.

The Commanders defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.