Falcons vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

(AP Photo/Matt Durisko)
  • The Falcons are -3.5 point favorites vs the Saints
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (6-3-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-7-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Falcons vs. Saints Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Falcons-3.5 -11546.5 -110-200
Saints +3.5 -10546.5 -110+165

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Younghoe Koo has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 14 games (+4.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alvin Kamara has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Falcons

Player Name Over Under
Alvin Kamara (NO) 36.5 -115 36.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Falcons

Player Name Over Under
Bijan Robinson (ATL) 74.5 -120 74.5 -110
Alvin Kamara (NO) 70.5 -110 70.5 -120
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have scored last in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 5-4 (+0.5 Units / 4.95% ROI).

  • Falcons are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 17.73% ROI
  • Falcons are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Falcons are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-6 (-3.55 Units / -36.41% ROI).

  • Saints are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -50.99% ROI
  • Saints are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Saints are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) on the road this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .478.

The Falcons were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Falcons were 3-5 (.375) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Falcons are undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Saints are winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.

The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Saints are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.

The Saints are winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.

The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.

The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged 0.55 epa per play on first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Falcons have averaged 0.52 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints have targeted RBs 27% of the time (77 Pass Attempts/289 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints have run successful plays on 39% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 36.4 pass attempts (328 Pass Attempts/9 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.

The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 15% of pass attempts (9/58) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (9/328) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Saints defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (9 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 69.1 with a light front (286 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 84.7.

The Saints defense has allowed 7.0 yards per dropback (1,770 yards/254 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.