Falcons vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 15

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New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) celebrates a touchdown during an NFL preseason football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Friday, Aug. 26, 2022, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)
(AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 15, 2022, 11:00 AM
  • The Saints (4-9) are -4 point favorites vs the Falcons (5-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (5-8) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (4-9) on Dec. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in New Orleans.

The Saints are betting favorites in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Saints Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 15

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Falcons+3.5 -11043.5 -110+155
Saints -3.5 -11043.5 -110-190

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Saints will win this Week 15 game with 58.8% confidence.

Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction for Week 15

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 15 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Saints, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.20 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Drake London has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for Week 15, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jarvis Landry has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Chris Olave has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Mark Ingram has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Andy Dalton has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Mark Ingram has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 75% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Falcons

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Alvin Kamara +700
Cordarrelle Patterson +750
Taysom Hill +750
Chris Olave +900
Tyler Allgeier +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Falcons

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Cordarrelle Patterson +105
Alvin Kamara +105
Taysom Hill +115
Chris Olave +155
Tyler Allgeier +160

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Falcons

Player Name Over Under
Cordarrelle Patterson 10.5 -120 10.5 -110
Alvin Kamara 30.5 -115 30.5 -115
Parker Hesse 7.5 -120 7.5 -110
Jarvis Landry 33.5 -110 33.5 -120
Anthony Firkser 11.5 -110 11.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Falcons

Player Name Over Under
Tyler Allgeier 44.5 -110 44.5 -120
Andy Dalton 3.5 -125 3.5 -105
Cordarrelle Patterson 50.5 -120 50.5 -110
Alvin Kamara 56.5 -115 56.5 -115
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.60 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 7-6 (+0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI).

  • Falcons are 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -18.73% ROI
  • Falcons are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • Falcons are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints have gone 5-8 (-3.8 Units / -26.76% ROI).

  • Saints are 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -32.22% ROI
  • Saints are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • Saints are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Falcons are 1-4 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .626.

The Falcons are winless (0-5) when intercepting no passes this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.

The Falcons are 3-11 (.214) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Falcons are winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .262.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Saints are winless (0-6) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .435.

The Saints are winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .262.

The Saints are 2-9 (.182) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .405.

The Saints are winless (0-3) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have run successful plays on 49.5% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — third-best in NFL. Falcons have allowed successful plays on 52.7% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Saints have gained at least 5 yards on 49.3% of first down plays this season — second-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed at least 5 yards on 50.1% of first down plays this season — worst in NFL.

Saints TEs have gained 154 yards on 13 receptions (11.8 YPR) since Week 11 — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception to TEs since Week 11 — third-worst in NFL.

Falcons RBs have averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry since Week 11 — best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 2.2 yards after contact per carry since Week 11 — tied for worst in NFL.

Falcons RBs have averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry since Week 11 — best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 2.1 yards after contact per carry to RBs since Week 11 — worst in NFL.

The Falcons have thrown the ball just 42.9% of the time since Week 11 — third-lowest in NFL. The Saints have allowed just 5.7 yards per dropback since Week 11 — tied for third-best in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Falcons have run the ball on 55% of plays (409 carries/746 plays) this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 29% of the time (100 Pass Attempts/339 plays) on 1st down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 40% of the time (300 Pass Attempts/746 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Falcons have thrown 60% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Saints have not recorded a TD in 9 drives in the 1st quarter since Week 11 — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Saints threw the ball 10% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/62 plays) on second and 1-3 yards to go last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Saints have not recorded a TD in 10 drives in the 4th quarter since Week 11 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Saints have run successful plays on 12% of rush attempts in the red zone since Week 11 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (35/1,061) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense has averaged 1.2 sacks per game since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.3.

The Falcons defense has pressured opposing QBs on 16% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Falcons defense averaged 1.1 sacks per game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.3.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats for Week 15

Only 8% of the plays ran against the Saints were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints defense has allowed 5.3 TDs per interception (16 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

The Saints defense has allowed first downs on 62% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Saints defense has intercepted 3 of 432 attempts (144.0 pass attempts per int.) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46.2.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.