- The Saints are -2.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ESPD
The Atlanta Falcons (1-2-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (1-2-0) on Oct. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm in New Orleans, LA.
The Saints are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-112).
The Falcons vs. Saints Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | +2.5 -105 | 46.5 +100 | +120 |
| Saints | -2.5 -112 | 46.5 -135 | -145 |
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 50.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Jahan Dotson has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+5.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.10 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Chris Olave has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Tyler Shough has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Tyler Shough has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Chris Olave has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.20 Units / 87% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | +290 |
| Alvin Kamara | +750 |
| Chris Olave | +775 |
| Drake London | +825 |
| Devaughn Vele | +1350 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | -220 |
| Chris Olave | +115 |
| Alvin Kamara | +125 |
| Drake London | +140 |
| Juwan Johnson | +230 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 84.5 -115 | 84.5 -115 |
| Drake London | 74.5 -145 | 74.5 +105 |
| Devaughn Vele | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Juwan Johnson | 36.5 -115 | 36.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 85.5 -115 | 85.5 -115 |
| Alvin Kamara | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
| Kendre Miller | 25.5 -115 | 25.5 -115 |
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+5.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.63 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+9.93 Units / 54% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.09 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.58 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Falcons are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Falcons are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- FalconsFalconsFalcons are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Saints are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 6.25% ROI
- Saints are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Saints are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
Falcons are 2-9 (.182) when making less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (5th-worst in NFL) and .778 when making 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (9th-best in NFL).
The Falcons are winless (0-7) when intercepting no passes since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .335.
The Falcons are winless (0-6) whe trailing at the end of the first half since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .224.
The Falcons are 6-11 (.353) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2025 season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are winless (0-4) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.
The Saints are 2-10 (.167) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .442.
The Saints are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .198.
The Saints are 3-9 (.250) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2025 season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints were successful on 87.5% of plays they ran on play action passes last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed a success rate of 75.0% on play action passes last week — T-4th-worst in NFL.
Saints RBs have averaged just 0.8 yards after contact per carry this season — worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just 1.2 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
The Saints are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on first down since the 2025 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just 4.1 yards per carry on first down since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of just 33.5% since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Saints defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 35.9% since the 2025 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Falcons had a third down conversion rate of 60.0% last week — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 58.3% last week — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Falcons WRs have just 108.5 receiving yards per game since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Saints have averaged just 119.8 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since the 2025 season — 4th-best in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons have averaged -1.40 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.
The Falcons have thrown the ball 8% of the time (1 Pass Attempts/13 plays) in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Falcons started 6 drives inside their own 20 yard line in Week 3 — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Falcons have run successful plays on 77% of plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints have gone three and out 20 times in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — most in NFL.
The Saints committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.
The Saints have gone three and out on 38% of their drives in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Saints threw for 4 TDs in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
Opponents have run the ball against The Falcons defense on just 26% of plays (48 carries/187 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Falcons defense has allowed 9 of 46 (20%) first downs on the ground this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Falcons defense has allowed 150 rushing yards this season — fewest in NFL.
Opponents ran the ball against The Falcons defense on just 14% of plays (9 carries/63 plays) in Week 3 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 30% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
Offenses facing the Saints targeted TEs 32% of the time (33 Pass Attempts/103 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Saints defense allowed an average of 0 yards after contact per carry (25 carries) in Week 3 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 1.6.
The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 32% of plays in the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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