- The Steelers are -3 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Atlanta Falcons (0-0-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-0) on Sep. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-135).
The Falcons vs. Steelers Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | +3 +100 | 42.5 -120 | +155 |
| Steelers | -3 -135 | 42.5 -108 | -190 |
Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 58.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Steelers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 59.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jahan Dotson has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Rico Dowdle has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Michael Pittman has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Steelers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | -155 |
| Jaylen Warren | +105 |
| Rico Dowdle | +105 |
| DK Metcalf | +185 |
| Drake London | +195 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 39.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 25.5 -115 | 25.5 -115 |
| Jaylen Warren | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -111 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 76.5 -115 | 76.5 -115 |
| Jaylen Warren | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
| Rico Dowdle | 44.5 -120 | 44.5 -111 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 21.5 -120 | 21.5 -110 |
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+7.40 Units / 56% ROI)
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Falcons were 3-1 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards last season — 6th-best in NFL. The Steelers allowed 243.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-highest in NFL.
The Falcons were winless (0-5) when intercepting no passes last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.
The Falcons were 3-1 (.750) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .542.
The Falcons were 5-2 (.714) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .588.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Steelers were 3-7 (.300) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (10th-lowest in NFL) and 7-0 (1.000) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season (best in NFL).
The Steelers are 0-5 (.000) when allowing more than 50% of third down conversions opportunities (T-lowest in NFL) and 18-8 (.692) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversions opportunities since the 2024 season (9th-best in NFL).
The Steelers were 5-2 (.714) after a loss last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .413.
The Steelers were 1-5 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .341.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers TEs averaged 9.0 targets per game last season — 4th-highest in NFL. The Falcons allowed just 4.2 receptions per game to TEs last season — 5th-lowest in NFL.
The Steelers allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 10.6% of pass attempts last week — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons had pressured opposing QBs on just 14.3% of passing plays last week — T-3rd-lowest in NFL.
Steelers RBs averaged 9.5 targets per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL. The Falcons allowed just 2.5 receptions per game to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-2nd-lowest in NFL.
The Falcons were successful on just 35.7% of rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-lowest in NFL. The Steelers allowed a success rate of just 28.6% on rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL.
The Falcons were 3-1 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards last season — 6th-best in NFL. The Steelers allowed 243.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-highest in NFL.
The Falcons rushed the ball on just 31.2% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-lowest in NFL. The Steelers did not allow a rushing touchdown in the Red Zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons converted late downs on just 17 of 239 plays (7%) with 4-6 yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Falcons had a third down conversion rate of 33% last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Falcons scored on 22% of their drives (4/18) on first drive of the game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Falcons converted first downs on just 69 of 207 plays (33%) on 3rd down last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers averaged just 5.2 yards per play on play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.
The Steelers faced a blitz just 5% of the time on 3rd and short last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Steelers allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 17% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Steelers averaged just 3.6 yards per play on contested throws last season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense had 57 sacks last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense averaged 3.4 sacks per game last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 2.4.
The Falcons defense had 11 sacks in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Falcons defense allowed an average of 10.1 fantasy points per game to TEs last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 13.3.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense allowed 78 broken tackles last season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Steelers defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (9 completions/22 attempts) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Steelers defense allowed 10 rushing TDs last season — 3rd-fewest in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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