- The Falcons are predicted to be an eight-point home underdog against the Rams.
- The Rams have won each of their last eight games following a loss.
- My Falcons vs Rams prediction is the Rams 1Q Over 6.5 Points (-140).
Week 17’s action closes out in Atlanta as the hot Falcons host the LA Rams.
Atlanta earned a 26-19 win and cover against the Arizona Cardinals last week, their second straight win. With two more wins, Atlanta could still clear its season win total.
Los Angeles fell 38-37 to the Seahawks last Thursday, falling out of the top spot in the NFC West. Now, in order to win the NFC West and avoid a wild-card spot, the Rams need to win out and get help.
Bet on Falcons vs. Rams and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Falcons vs. Rams: NFL Week 17 Odds
Falcons vs. Rams Prediction
Based on the Rams’ strong first-quarter metrics and the Falcons’ lack of experience against good offenses, my Falcons vs Rams prediction is the Rams 1Q Over 6.5 Points (-140).
Above all else, I want to sell the Falcons defense on MNF. Geoff Ulbrich’s unit ranks 15th in defensive DVOA, but has played the 25th-hardest schedule of opposing offenses.
The Rams are the best offense in the NFL by a country mile. At a 32.1% DVOA percentage, the Rams outpace the Colts (+18.2%) and 12th-placed Denver.
Sean McVay’s first quarter metrics offer equally impressive metrics. The Rams’ 54.4% success rate in the opening frame outpaces Seattle by 4.1%.
That’s as big a gap between Seattle and 16th-placed Atlanta.
The Falcons faced Indianapolis, the closest “comparison” to the Rams in Berlin. Shane Steichen’s offense raced out to a 13-0 lead at the end of the first quarter.
The defense held up well against San Francisco and Buffalo. However, the Bills start slow, and San Francisco played without Brock Purdy.
Irrespective of opponent, the Rams have excelled against this prop. On average, the offense scored 7.3 first quarter points per game, including 8.1 on the road.
That came against the league’s third-hardest set of opposing defenses.
Los Angeles started slowly against this prop, going 3-4 against this number in the first seven games. Since their bye week, the offense has cleared this figure seven times in eight games.
Last week’s game at Seattle offered the lone failure. Now, the team has extended time to prepare for MNF, offering an advantage over Atlanta’s defense.
Add in that Atlanta has allowed both Tampa Bay and Arizona to clear this number, and I predict the Rams offense starts fast on MNF.
Betting Falcons vs. Rams: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Rams (-7.5) | 69% | 43% |
| Falcons (+7.5) | 31% | 57% |
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