Giants vs. Buccaneers Prediction: NFL Week 12 Odds, Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) looks back at a defender after his first of three deep touchdown receptions during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, January 1, 2023, in Tampa, Fla.
(Peter Joneleit/AP Photo)
  • The Giants are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Buccaneers.
  • The Giants have lost five straight against teams that held a losing record.
  • My Giants vs. Buccaneers prediction is for Tampa Bay to cover the spread.

The Giants return to Tommy DeVito on Sunday as home underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.ย 

Both teams received a week of rest in Week 11. Before their bye week, the Giants fell 20-17 in Germany to the Carolina Panthers, their fifth straight defeat.ย 

Not a lot is going right for the Buccaneers, either. Tampa Bay has lost four straight games, but Todd Bowlesโ€™ side closed an underdog in all four contests.ย 

Bet on Giants vs. Buccaneers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

NFL Week 12 Odds: Giants vs. Buccaneers

2024-12-15T21:25:00Z

Buccaneers at Chargers

Giants vs. Buccaneers Prediction

Due to the likely return of Mike Evans and the Giantsโ€™ weak ATS record at home, my Giants vs. Buccaneers prediction is the Buccaneers Spread (-5.5, -110).ย 

Since market open, this line moved rapidly due to the switch from Daniel Jones to DeVito.ย 

While itโ€™s fun to romanticize DeVito the character, the cold hard truth is that heโ€™s not a very good quarterback. In his last full start, DeVito completed 20 passes for only 177 yards.ย 

Although the Bucs rank 19th in defensive DVOA, consider the fact theyโ€™ve played the hardest schedule of opposing offenses.ย 

Sundayโ€™s game at MetLife Stadium marks their easiest offensive opponent of the season and the first game against a bottom-half DVOA opponent since Week 3.ย 

Meanwhile, this Buccaneers offense is humming and should improve with Evans returning.ย 

Tampa Bay ranks eighth in offensive DVOA, having faced the sixth-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.ย 

Since Week 4, the Bucs rank fourth in EPA per play and offensive success rate.ย 

While Iโ€™m concerned about the stability of Tampaโ€™s offensive line against a good Giants front seven, New York is suddenly exploitable on the ground.ย 

Over the last three games, the Giants rank 31st in rush EPA per play and rush success rate.ย 

History also suggests Tampa Bay is the preferred side on Sunday.ย 

Since 2003, conference favorites with 10-16 days between games between -10 and -5.5 that see their spread rise at least a half point are 64% ATS.ย 

When those teams fall between -7 and -5.5: 30-17 ATS, including 16-5 away from home.ย 

Betting Giants vs. Buccaneers: NFL Public Betting

Bets% (Spread)Money% (Spread)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Buccaneers86%89%64%80%
Giants14%11%36%20%
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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.