- The Giants are predicted to be +4.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys.
- Dak Prescott is 12-2 SU against the Giants in his career.
- I predict the likeliest outcome for TNF is a Cowboys cover.
On the heels of two straight home losses, the Cowboys travel to face the Giants for an NFC East clash on Thursday Night Football.
In terms of Week 3 results, these teams are heading in opposite directions. Dallas nearly staged a second-half comeback against Baltimore, but they ultimately fell 28-25.
As for the Giants, they too let the Browns back into the game with a big lead but held on for a 21-15 win as road dogs in Cleveland.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Giants vs. Cowboys prediction.
Giants vs. Cowboys Odds, TNF
- Dallas Cowboys Moneyline: -225
- New York Giants Moneyline: +185
- Game Spread: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 44 Points
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction, TNF
My Thursday Night Football prediction is the Dallas Cowboys Spread (-4.5, -110). However, this qualifies as a lean.
History informs bettors that a Dallas win is fairly likely.
Conference dogs off an outright win at +4.5 or higher are 22-65 SU in their next game, assuming the opponent lost by no more than 17 points in their last game.
When those dogs are off a win by between one and 10 points, they fall to 14-53 SU, including 1-14 SU against an opponent that lost two straight games.
That tells me the Cowboys won’t drop a third straight contest. Now for the key question: will they cover?
Dak Prescott has owned divisional opponents when he’s listed as a favorite.
The Mississippi State product is 21-6 ATS as a favorite within the division, including 5-0 ATS last season.
Just against New York last season, Prescott finished 2-0 ATS with a +72 point differential.
However, neither of those games saw Prescott operate on short rest. In fact, Prescott is only 1-1 ATS as a Thursday favorite within the division, both of which came at home on Thanksgiving.
That leads me to be wary of the Cowboys on Thursday night.
If forced to bet it, I would lay the points with Dallas. However, I’d elect to use this as the first leg of a moneyline parlay or try to bet Dallas live at a better number.
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