Jaguars vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 12, 2022, 10:05 AM
  • The Chiefs are point favorites vs the Jaguars
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) on Nov. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Jaguars vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 10

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jaguars+9.5 -11050.5 -110+350
Chiefs -9.5 -11050.5 -110-450

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 10 game with 84.0% confidence.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Spread Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread this Week 10 with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jaguars and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player high – away 

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player  high – home
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 3-6 (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Jaguars are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Jaguars are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Jaguars are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 3-5 (-2.55 Units / -28.81% ROI).

  • Chiefs are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Chiefs are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Chiefs are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Jaguars are winless (0-10) on the road since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.

The Jaguars are 3-5 (.375) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .777.

The Jaguars are winless (0-5) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .441.

The Jaguars are winless (0-2) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .386.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs are undefeated (3-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .634.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .558.

The Chiefs are 19-8 (.704) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .292.

The Chiefs are 6-4 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .203.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 52.9% in the second half this season — best in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 48.2% in the second half this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 57.7% against the blitz this season — best in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 50.0% when blitzing this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have thrown for 1,207 passing yards in 3 games (402.3 YPG) since Week 6 — best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 266.8 passing yards per game since Week 6 — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars are averaging 5.3 yards per carry on first down this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 5.4 yards per carry on first down this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Jaguars RBs have just 13.2 receiving yards per game since Week 6 — third-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have averaged just 14.7 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since Week 6 — third-best in NFL.

Jaguars RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 16.2% of 99 carries since Week 6 — fifth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 10+ yards on 15.8% of carries to RBs since Week 6 — fifth-worst in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats for Week 10

The Jaguars have committed 4 turnovers in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Jaguars had a third down conversion rate of 31% in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Jaguars have run 41% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 73% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter since Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 10

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 46% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 52% since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Chiefs have run 60% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats for Week 10

Only 2% of the plays run against the Jaguars have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Jaguars defense has allowed successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Jaguars defense intercepted 6 of 542 attempts (90.3 pass attempts per int.) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.6.

The Jaguars defense allowed 7 broken tackles in Week 9 — most in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 10

The Chiefs defense allowed 12.4 yards after the catch (62 RAC / 5 receptions) in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.8.

The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 9% in Week 9 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense has averaged a sack every 61.5 pass attempts (123 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) in the red zone since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 17.8.

The Chiefs defense did not allow a TD pass in Week 9 — tied for fewest in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.