Jaguars vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 17

BetMGM Betting Dec 27, 2025, 11:11 AM

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A general overall interior view of Lucas Oil Stadium as Chicago Bears take on the Indianapolis Colts during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in Indianapolis. The Colts defeated the Bears 21-16. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

(AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

The Jaguars are -6.5 point favorites vs the Colts
Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (8-7-0) on Dec. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Jaguars vs. Colts Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this game with 72.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jaguars vs Colts Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 52.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

Trevor Lawrence has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 65% ROI)
Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Travis Etienne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
Bhayshul Tuten has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Trevor Lawrence has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 5 games (+5.80 Units / 109% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 62% ROI)
Alec Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 59% ROI)
Tyler Warren has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 64% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 39% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.52 Units / 17% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.10 Units / 24% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 32% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.80 Units / 23% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 10-5 (+4.5 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Jaguars are 11-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.9 Units / 33.58% ROI
Jaguars are 9-6 when betting the Over for +2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI
Jaguars are 6-9 when betting the Under for -3.9 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 8-7 (+0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI).

Colts are 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -1.22% ROI
Colts are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI
Colts are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defense allowed 5 TD passes in Week 16 — most in NFL.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 19% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since Week 13 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Colts defense allowed a late down conversion rate of 43% in short yardage situations in Week 16 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 80% of rush attempts first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 offenses this season They play the Colts in Week 17 (Ranks seventh in total offense).

The Jaguars are 7-1 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .572.

The Jaguars are 6-3 (.667) vs top 10 pass offenses this season They play the Colts in Week 17 (Ranks ninth in passing offense).

The Jaguars are 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .420.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts