Jaguars Over Under Wins 2026 Prediction & Odds

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 2026 win total and my Jaguars win total prediction. 

Jaguars Win Total Odds 2026

The Jaguars’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

Current odds price over 9.5 wins at +120 while under 9.5 wins is priced at -145.

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 7.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins

Jaguars Win Total Prediction 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 9.5 Wins (-115)

Based on current implied probability, the Jaguars are predicted to finish under 9.5 wins with 59.2% confidence. Given Jacksonville’s reliance on defensive turnovers and key regression metrics pointing toward a decline, I predict the Jaguars finish Under 9.5 Wins (-115). 

Liam Coen turned around the Jaguars in his first season, notching 13 wins and a division title. But a laundry list of reasons exists to expect this team to take a major step back in 2026. 

Jacksonville finished 3-0 in field-goal games and 6-3 in one-possession contests last year. Defensively, the Jaguars finished sixth in DVOA, but relied on turnovers to achieve that record. 

Only the Bears forced more turnovers on defense than Jacksonville. On plays excluding turnovers, Jacksonville ranked 25th in EPA and success rate for the first 10 weeks. 

Additionally, Jacksonville largely played games against terrible quarterbacks. 

By EPA + CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expected), Anthony Campanile’s defense faced only five quarterbacks inside the top-10. 

The Jags finished 2-3 in those games, with wins coming by three and five points. Both games featured a score on special teams or defense that flipped the result. 

Next year, Jacksonville projects to take a step up in defensive competition. By 2025 offensive DVOA percentages, the Jaguars project to go from a -1 rating to a -0.3 rating. 

They’ll do so without some key contributors due to salary cap constraints. Linebacker Devin Lloyd – first in Jacksonville’s PFF ratings – is a free agent. 

Key run stopper Andrew Wingard also enters free agency alongside corner Greg Newsome.

If those turnovers dry up against a harder schedule, I question if the offense can keep up. For those reasons, I predict the Jaguars regress by at least four wins in 2026.