Jaguars vs. Bills: NFL Wild Card Odds, Prediction

Liam Coen’s Jaguars, the AFC South champion, begin their postseason at home against the Bills. 

Jacksonville enters Sunday’s wild-card round game riding an eight-game winning streak. Coen’s offense has shined since the bye week, with the team averaging 32.8 points per game. 

Buffalo claimed an easy Week 18 win over the Jets to finish the regular season at 12-5. This season, the Bills offense notched at least 30 points in a majority of games. 

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Jaguars vs. Bills: NFL Wild Card Odds

Jaguars vs. Bills Prediction

Based on Jacksonville’s improved offensive metrics and Buffalo’s inexperience against good offenses, my Jaguars vs Bills prediction is the Jaguars 1H Over 13.5 Points (+110). 

Inconsistency plagued the Jaguars offense early in the season. From Week 1-7, Coen’s offense ranked 22nd in EPA per play and 19th in offensive success rate. 

After Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye, the team completely turned a corner, especially after acquiring Jakobi Meyers. 

From Week 9 onward, Jacksonville ranked seventh in EPA per play and 11th in offensive success rate. 

With Meyers, the passing game ranked third in EPA and fourth in success rate from Weeks 10-18. 

Some games came against easy defenses, admittedly. But the offense still managed 20, 14 and 17 first-half points against Houston, Los Angeles (A) and Denver. 

Now the offense gets a weak Buffalo defense. Buffalo arrives at this game ranked 20th in defensive DVOA, having faced the easiest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Away from home, the defense has struggled early against competent offenses. New England managed 24 in the first half at home, with Houston scoring 20, albeit on short rest. 

Even a battered and bruised Browns offense got to 10 at home against Buffalo. Irrespective of the opponent, Buffalo surrendered 13 first-half points per game away from home. 

Only Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Carolina and the Jets stayed under this benchmark against Buffalo at home. All four rank behind the Jaguars in both cumulative and weighted offensive DVOA. 

Meanwhile, Jacksonville leads the NFL with 18 first-half points per game at home. Irrespective of venue, the unit averaged 14.9, good for the fourth-best mark in the NFL. 

Accordingly, I predict the Jaguars start fast against a bad defense. 

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