Jets vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

BetMGM Betting Dec 31, 2025, 4:10 PM

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A Buffalo Bills helmet sits on the turf next to a couple of footballs prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

The Bills are -7 point favorites vs the Jets
Total (Over/Under): 38 points
Watch this game on CBS

The New York Jets (3-13-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (11-5-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-118).

The Jets vs. Bills Over/Under is 38 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Jets vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 68.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)
Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 49% ROI)
Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 41% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 70% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Dawson Knox has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 54% ROI)
Josh Palmer has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.45 Units / 56% ROI)
Ty Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 29% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.02 Units / 23% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 18% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.95 Units / 36% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.55 Units / 47% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 47% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.02 Units / 26% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 7-9 (-2.7 Units / -15.52% ROI).

Jets are 3-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -53.52% ROI
Jets are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
Jets are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 7-9 (-2.95 Units / -16.71% ROI).

Bills are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -6.22% ROI
Bills are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bills are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills have scored 20 TDs on first drive of the game this season — most in NFL.

The Bills have averaged 0.37 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.04.

The Bills have averaged 7.8 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bills have run successful plays on 52% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Bills defense did not allow a successful play on any pass attempt in the 2nd half in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Bills defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 20% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bills defense has allowed just 282.9 receiving yards per game (4,526/16) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 389.3.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills