Jets vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Dolphins (8-8) are -1 point favorites vs the Jets (7-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 38.5 points

The New York Jets (7-9) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (8-8) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami Gardens.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (+100).

The Jets vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 37 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jets+3.5 -12037 -110+145
Dolphins -3.5 +10037 -110-175

Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 18 game with 55.0% confidence.

Jets vs Dolphins Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread this Week 18 with 69.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jets and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Zach Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Corey Davis has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Garrett Wilson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+4.10 Units / 82% ROI)

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.15 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 49% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Jets

Player Name Over Under
Tyreek Hill 65.5 -115 65.5 -115
  • The New York Jets have scored last in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.85 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 68% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets have gone 8-8 (-1 Units / -5.62% ROI).

  • Jets are 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 21.2% ROI
  • Jets are 5-11 when betting the Over for -7.15 Units / -40.51% ROI
  • Jets are 11-5 when betting the Under for +5.5 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 8-8 (-0.9 Units / -5.03% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -2.88% ROI
  • Dolphins are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Dolphins are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Jets were winless (0-8) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Jets are 5-1 (.833) when scoring 22 or more points this season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .723.

The Jets are winless (0-8) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .351.

The Jets were winless (0-3) vs top 10 offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .376.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) at home this season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .552.

The Dolphins are 8-4 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .513.

The Dolphins are 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .614.

The Dolphins are undefeated (6-0) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .763.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of just 30.4% since Week 14 — fifth-worst in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 32.8% since Week 14 — fifth-best in NFL.

No Matchup notes for this Game

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Jets are averaging 22.0 drives per TD in the 1st quarter this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.2.

The Jets have run successful plays on 30% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Jets have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jets have faced a blitz 26% of the time on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 60 of 119 plays (50%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 22 of 50 plays (44%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 2 of 9 plays (22%) on 3rd and short since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

Only 6% of the plays run against the Jets have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Jets defense allowed 28 rushing TDs last season — most in NFL.

The Jets defense allowed 15.8 points per game to opposing offenses (268 points / 17 games) in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Jets’ opponents have averaged 35.0 Passing Attempts per TD (525 Pass Attempts/15 Passing TDs) this season — 2nd-best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 24.0.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Dolphins defense allowed at least 5 yards on 37% of first down plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

20% of the plays run against the Dolphins have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense has blitzed on 21% of plays since Week 14 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.