Jets vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • The Patriots (5-4) are -3 point favorites vs the Jets (6-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 38.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The New York Jets (6-4) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (6-4) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough.

The are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Jets vs. Patriots Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jets
Patriots

Jets vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this Week 11 game with 58.8% confidence.

Jets vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread this Week 11 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jets and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Zach Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Joe Flacco has hit the Completions Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Joe Flacco has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 94% ROI)

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Damien Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+3.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+11.30 Units / 136% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have scored last in their last 9 games (+9.95 Units / 106% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have covered the 4Q Spread in their last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 62% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets have gone 6-3 (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Jets are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.3 Units / 110.75% ROI
  • Jets are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.65 Units / -36.68% ROI
  • Jets are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 5-3 (+1.8 Units / 18.65% ROI).

  • Patriots are 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -11.71% ROI
  • Patriots are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Patriots are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Jets are undefeated (4-0) on the road this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .433.

The Jets were winless (0-7) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .471.

The Jets are 5-3 (.625) when underdogs this season — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .393.

The Jets were winless (0-3) vs top 10 offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .376.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Patriots are undefeated (6-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .579.

The Patriots are 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .412.

The Patriots are 2-1 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .410.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have scored on 21.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed scores on 16.7% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL.

The Patriots have scored on 20% of their drives in late and close games this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed scores on 16.7% of opponent drives in close and late situations this season — best in NFL.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 29.5 yard line this season — best in NFL. The Jets have allowed an average drive start position from the 28.2 yard line this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Jets have run successful plays on just 10.5% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — worst in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 29.9% of passing plays this season — second-best in NFL.

The Jets have gone three and out on 37.1% of their drives since Week 7 — second-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 30.8% of opponent drives since Week 7 — fourth-best in NFL.

The Jets have run successful plays on just 10.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since Week 7 — third-worst in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 41.8% of passing plays since Week 7 — best in NFL.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Jets have run 69% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Jets have run successful plays on 28% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Jets have run 30% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Jets have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Patriots have not recorded a TD in 23 drives in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.4.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots have started 16 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 25% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

Only 5% of the plays run against the Jets have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Jets defense allowed 15.8 points per game to opposing offenses (268 points / 17 games) in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Jets defense allowed first downs on 52% of rush attempts on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 69%.

The Jets defense allowed an average of 26.2 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18.0.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Patriots defense has averaged 1.3 interceptions per game (34/26) since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Patriots defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 15 of 225 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) this season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Patriots defense averaged 1.4 interceptions per game (23/17) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.