- The Las Vegas Raiders are currently +600 to make the postseason after Week 4.
- Since moving to Vegas in 2020, the Raiders have earned one postseason appearance.
- I predict the Raiders’ scheduling disadvantages will lead to a missed postseason.
Based on NFL odds and Raiders playoff odds, the Las Vegas Raiders are predicted to miss the postseason this year.
A year after finishing last in the AFC West, the Raiders acquired Geno Smith to link up with new coach Pete Carroll. Despite the move, oddsmakers price the Raiders at +8000 to make the playoffs.
For bettors wanting to take the “no” side of the market, they’ll have to lay 1 on Las Vegas.
Prediction: Will the Las Vegas Raiders Make the Playoffs?
Based on the unknowns surrounding the offense and Las Vegas’ scheduling disadvantage, I predict the Raiders Miss the Playoffs (-400).
off the board
While I maintain the Raiders’ win total comes in too low, finding space in the playoffs for this team is more difficult.
The AFC West has (arguably) established itself as one of the toughest divisions in football. Even if regression comes for the Chiefs, it still leaves two obstacles to overcome for Vegas.
If there’s a case for optimism, it’s that the Raiders face a significantly easier path to a strong record in 2025 compared to 2024.
Last season, the Raiders finished 17th in defensive DVOA against the sixth-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, Las Vegas faces the league’s easiest set of opposing offenses.
Despite that fact, the Raiders face a slightly above-average schedule based on opponent win totals. Additionally, schedule makers burdened Las Vegas with a unique disadvantage.
Per sharpfootballanalysis.com, Las Vegas faces a -19 net rest advantage in 2025. That’s the biggest discrepancy in the league with six games featuring a rest disadvantage.
I also question how quickly Carroll can turn around the offense. Last season, Las Vegas ranked 29th in offensive DVOA. Not since 2022 have the Raiders ranked better than 27th.
While Smith represents an upgrade over both Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell, I question if he takes a step back due to lack of depth at wide receiver.
If Ashton Jeanty doesn’t pan out in his rookie season, the defensive improvement likely won’t be enough for Vegas to make the playoffs.
What are the Odds the Raiders Make the Playoffs?
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +310 | 24.4% |
| Week 2 | +250 | 28.6% |
| Week 3 | +310 | 24.4% |
| Week 4 | +400 | 20% |
| Week 5 | +600 | 14.3% |
When Was the Last Time the Las Vegas Raiders Won the Super Bowl?
The Raiders have three Super Bowl wins in franchise history with the last championship coming in 1984.
The most recent Super Bowl appearance for the Raiders came in 2003 as the Oakland Raiders, a 48-21 loss to the Buccaneers.
What are the Odds the Raiders Win the Super Bowl?
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +12500 | 0.79% |
| Week 2 | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Week 3 | +15000 | 0.66% |
| Week 4 | +50000 | 0.20% |
| Week 5 | +50000 | 0.20% |
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