Lions vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

BetMGM Betting Dec 31, 2025, 4:10 PM

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Chicago Bears fans cheer during the first half of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Chicago. The Bears defeated the Panthers 36-10. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

The Bears are -3 point favorites vs the Lions
Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (8-8-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (11-5-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Chicago, IL.

The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-102).

The Lions vs. Bears Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Lions vs. Bears Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 63.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

Jared Goff has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 64% ROI)
David Montgomery has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Sam LaPorta has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 39% ROI)
Sam LaPorta has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.40 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 57% ROI)
Luther Burden III has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 52% ROI)
Colston Loveland has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.15 Units / 42% ROI)
Luther Burden III has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 34% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 15% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 23% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.75 Units / 19% ROI)

Bears Best Bets:

The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+14.90 Units / 55% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 48% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.03 Units / 39% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+7.20 Units / 36% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 7-9 (-2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI).

Lions are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -17.77% ROI
Lions are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
Lions are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / ROI

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 10-5 (+4.65 Units / 26.57% ROI).

Bears are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.4 Units / 42.25% ROI
Bears are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI
Bears are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.23% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 13% on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of pass attempts open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Bears defense allowed 3 TD passes in Week 17 — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bears defense has averaged 2.7 interceptions per game (43/16) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.1.

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Bears have converted late downs on 69 of 455 plays (15%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Bears have gone three and out 5 times in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — most in NFL.

The Bears have an average drive start position from the 58.4 yard line in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47.7.

The Bears ran 16% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 17 — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears