- The Bills are -3.5 point favorites vs the Lions
- Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Detroit Lions (1-0-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (1-0-0) on Sep. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-135).
The Lions vs. Bills Over/Under is 53.5 total points for the game.
Bet now on Bills vs Lions & all NFL games with BetMGM
Lions vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Lions | +3.5 +100 | 53.5 +100 | +185 |
| Bills | -3.5 -135 | 53.5 -135 | -225 |
Lions vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 56.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Lions vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 50.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Bills vs Lions and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jameson Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jameson Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ty Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Lions
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +290 |
| James Cook | +550 |
| Josh Allen | +700 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +875 |
| DJ Moore | +1150 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Lions
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | -295 |
| James Cook | -155 |
| Josh Allen | -140 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +115 |
| DJ Moore | +130 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Lions
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 80.5 -115 | 80.5 -115 |
| DJ Moore | 60.5 -135 | 60.5 +100 |
| Jameson Williams | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 50.5 -125 | 50.5 -105 |
| Sam LaPorta | 45.5 -111 | 45.5 -118 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Lions
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 86.5 -135 | 86.5 +100 |
| James Cook | 82.5 -115 | 82.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen | 30.5 -125 | 30.5 -105 |
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+10.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+3.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Lions are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 30.77% ROI
- Lions are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- LionsLionsLions are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bills are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 86.96% ROI
- Bills are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Bills are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Lions are 8-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average of 135.8 rushing yards per game since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Lions are 10-1 (.909) when rushing for 100 or more yards (T-2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).
The Lions were 7-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — T-best in NFL. The Bills allowed an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Lions are 2-7 (.222) when allowing 100 yards rushing or more (T-8th-worst in NFL) and .889 when allowing less than 100 yards rushing since the 2025 season (T-8th-best in NFL).
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
Bills are 13-0 (1.000) when scoring 22 or more points (T-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).
The Bills are undefeated (10-0) when leading at the end of the third quarter since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .841.
The Bills were 12-0 (1.000) when scoring 22 or more points (T-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points last season (T-worst in NFL).
The Bills are undefeated (13-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .726.
Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills were successful on just 35.0% of rush attempts last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The Lions allowed a success rate of just 32.0% on rush attempts last week — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Bills threw for 20+ yards on 12.3% of attempts last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Lions allowed 20+ yards on 10.5% of attempts last season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Bills TEs have 12 receiving touchdowns since the 2025 season — 5th-most in NFL. The Lions have allowed 34 receiving touchdowns since the 2025 season — 5th-most in NFL.
Lions TEs had just 39.8 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed an average of just 29.6 receiving yards per game to TEs last season — best in NFL.
Lions TEs have just 40.6 receiving yards per game since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average ofjust 31.6 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Lions RBs averaged 115.2 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Bills allowed an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions ran successful plays on 88% of rush attempts against a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Lions have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Lions averaged 8.8 yards per play on play action passes last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.
The Lions have averaged 0.10 epa per play on motion plays since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have run successful plays on 64% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
The Bills averaged 7.6 yards per play on first drive of the game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.
The Bills have averaged 7.4 yards per play on first drive of the game since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.
The Bills have averaged 0.24 epa per play on first drive of the game since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Lions defense blitzed on 35% of plays in Week 1 — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Lions defense allowed 35 completions in Week 1 — most in NFL.
The Lions defense blitzed 30 times in Week 1 — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Lions defense allowed successful plays on 20% of rush attempts on motion plays in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Bills defense has allowed just 3.0 receptions per game (54/18) to TEs since the 2025 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
The Bills defense allowed just 2.7 receptions per game (46/17) to TEs last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Bills vs Lions and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
More NFL Odds at BetMGM
If you’re looking for more NFL odds, check out the sportsbook’s betting markets throughout the year.
From futures like Rams Super Bowl odds and Lions odds to make the playoffs to game odds like spread, money lines, and totals, there’s never a break in the action.
Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
