Lions vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray throws a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
(AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2024, 4:08 PM
  • The Lions are -3 point favorites vs the Cardinals
  • Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (1-1-0) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals (1-1-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Glendale, AZ.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Lions vs. Cardinals Over/Under is 51.5 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Cardinals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Lions-3 -10551.5 -110-150
Cardinals +3 -11551.5 -110+125

Lions vs. Cardinals Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Lions vs Cardinals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 61.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • James Conner has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • James Conner has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Chris Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Zay Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Chris Moore has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cardinals vs Lions

Player Name Over Under
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 81.5 -115 81.5 -115
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) 24.5 -115 24.5 -115
Jameson Williams (DET) 49.5 -110 49.5 -120
Sam LaPorta (DET) 43.5 -115 43.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Cardinals vs Lions

Player Name Over Under
David Montgomery (DET) 51.5 -110 51.5 -120
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) 49.5 -110 49.5 -120
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+4.35 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.05 Units / 41% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions art 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Lions are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -43.33% ROI
  • Lions are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
  • Lions are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cardinals are 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Cardinals are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Cardinals are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Cardinals are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals

The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Lions are 12-3 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Cardinals have averaged just 2.1 sacks per game over that time span — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Lions were undefeated (5-0) after a loss last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.

The Lions were 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Cardinals were winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Cardinals are winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .710.

The Cardinals were 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Cardinals were winless (0-10) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have been successful on 50.0% of plays they have ran against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed their opponents to be successful on 54.5% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Cardinals have run successful plays on 54.5% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on 66.7% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Cardinals ran successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts against a base rush last week — best in NFL. The Lions allowed successful plays on 56.2% of pass attempts with a base rush last week — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Lions have averaged 0.49 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed 0.45 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run 59.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed their opponents to run 56.0% of plays in their territory this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on 49.1% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 51.1% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions have faced a blitz 58 times this season — most in NFL.

The Lions faced a blitz 54 times in Week 2 — most in NFL.

The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Lions have faced a blitz 40% of the time this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Arizona Cardinals Offense: Important Stats

The Cardinals have averaged 1.12 epa per play against a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Cardinals have rushed for 20+ yards 5 times this season — T-most in NFL.

The Cardinals went for two on 36% of PATs last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Cardinals had 23 rushes of 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense has blitzed on 52% of plays on 3rd and long since the 2022 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 6% of the time (4 Pass Attempts/68 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 66% of plays open coverage since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Lions defense sacked opposing QBs on just 25% of pass attempts (41/165) when they pressured the QB last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

Arizona Cardinals Defense: Important Stats

20% of the plays run against the Cardinals have been in the red zone since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

21% of the plays run against the Cardinals have been in the red zone in the 2nd half since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

18% of the plays run against the Cardinals have been in the red zone since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Cardinals defense allowed 6 TD passes when the opposing QB was scrambling last season — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.