- The Chiefs are -2.5 point favorites vs the Lions
- Total (Over/Under): 53 points
- Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU
The Detroit Lions (4-1-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3-0) on Oct. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Lions vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 53 total points for the game.
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Lions vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Lions | +2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | 115 |
| Chiefs | -2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -135 |
Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the will win this game with confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Lions vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the will cover the spread with confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today
- Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Lions
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -115 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 5.5 -118 | 5.5 -110 |
| Hollywood Brown (KC) | 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -118 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | 19.5 -110 | 19.5 -118 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Lions
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 31.5 -110 | 31.5 -120 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 30.5 -118 | 30.5 -110 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 65.5 -118 | 65.5 -115 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 27.5 -118 | 27.5 -110 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 3Q Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 away games (+10.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 45% ROI)
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 4-1 (+2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI).
- Lions are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 26.23% ROI
- Lions are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Lions are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- Chiefs are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -28.24% ROI
- Chiefs are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 73% of rush attempts in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.76 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 76% of plays against a base front in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 11.5 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 99.5 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 125.7.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 44% of plays first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 11.5 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 99.5 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 125.7.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 44% of plays first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 73% of rush attempts in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.76 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 76% of plays against a base front in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 73% of rush attempts in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.76 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 76% of plays against a base front in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 11.5 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 99.5 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 125.7.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 44% of plays first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 73% of rush attempts in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.76 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 76% of plays against a base front in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 11.5 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 99.5 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 125.7.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 44% of plays first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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