Lions vs Packers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Packers (8-8) are -4.5 point favorites vs the Lions (8-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBC

The Detroit Lions (8-8) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (8-8) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Green Bay.

The Packers are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Lions vs. Packers Over/Under is 49 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Lions+4.5 -11049 -110+180
Packers -4.5 -11049 -110-225

Lions vs. Packers Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Packers will win this Week 18 game with 69.3% confidence.

Lions vs Packers Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread this Week 18 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Lions and Packers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jared Goff has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Kalif Raymond has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.30 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Robert Tonyan has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Passing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Christian Watson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Romeo Doubs has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 40% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Packers vs Lions

Player Name Over Under
Robert Tonyan 24.5 -115 24.5 -115
Allen Lazard 48.5 -115 48.5 -115
Aaron Jones 19.5 -110 19.5 -120
D.J. Chark 35.5 -120 35.5 -110
Amon-Ra St. Brown 67.5 -115 67.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Packers vs Lions

Player Name Over Under
AJ Dillon 44.5 -110 44.5 -120
D'Andre Swift 31.5 -120 31.5 -110
Jamaal Williams 53.5 -115 53.5 -115
Jared Goff 1.5 -120 1.5 -110
Aaron Jones 60.5 -120 60.5 -110
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+9.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 48% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions have gone 11-5 (+5.4 Units / 30.68% ROI).

  • Lions are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 3.71% ROI
  • Lions are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
  • Lions are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / ROI

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers have gone 8-8 (-0.9 Units / -5.06% ROI).

  • Packers are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -19.58% ROI
  • Packers are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Packers are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Lions are 1-5 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — seventh-worst in NFL. The Packers have intercepted 17 passes this season — tied for third-most in NFL.

The Lions are winless (0-5) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .289.

The Lions are winless (0-4) when committing 2 or more turnovers this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .296.

The Lions are 3-19 (.136) when committing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .397.

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Packers are 13-2 (.867) at home since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .530.

The Packers are 4-7 (.364) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .479.

The Packers are winless (0-5) when having a TO margin of -2 or worse since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .131.

The Packers are 5-1 (.833) when forcing at least one fumble this season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Packers RBs have averaged 115.5 rushing yards per game this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed an average of 150.1 rushing yards per game this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Packers RBs have 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed an average of 24 PPG this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run 17.7% offensive plays in the red zone this season — second-best in NFL. Packers has allowed their opponent to run 16.2% of plays in the red zone this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run 50.4% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — third-best in NFL. Packers have allowed their opponents to run 46.9% of plays in their territory this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Lions have a third down conversion rate of 53.8% against the blitz this season — second-best in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 46.2% when blitzing this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Lions have run 21% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Lions ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Lions ran 9% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 35% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Packers have run 66% of their plays in their opponent’s territory since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Packers have been flagged 60 times on offense since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

The Packers have run 93% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in close and late situations since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Packers have run 41% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Lions defense sacked opposing QBs on 25% of pass attempts (7/28) in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Lions defense has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,627 yards / 785 touches) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.

Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 10% of the time (55 Pass Attempts/532 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Lions defense has allowed 414.2 yards from scrimmage per game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 356.7.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Packers defense allowed an average time of possession of 25 min and 56 s last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 31 min 1s.

The Packers defense has allowed 8.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (939 yards / 105 touches) since Week 14 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.

The Packers defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 13 of 444 attempts (3%) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.