- The Miami Dolphins are +155 to make the postseason in 2025-26.
- Miami reached the playoffs in two of the previous three seasons.
- I predict the Dolphins miss the playoffs for a second straight season.
Based on NFL odds and Dolphins playoff odds, the Miami Dolphins are predicted to miss the postseason this year.
Miami, which finished second in the AFC East last season, is +165 to make the playoffs in 2025.
Oddsmakers price the Dolphins at -200 to miss the playoffs next season.
Prediction: Will the Miami Dolphins Make the Playoffs?
Based on Miami’s weak offensive line and likely bad defense, I predict the Dolphins Miss the Playoffs (-190) in 2025.
Key to any Miami success in 2025 is keeping quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy. With Tagovailoa as the starter, Miami owns a 38-24 record since 2020.
In 2023, Tagovailoa avoided injuries entirely. Miami finished 11-6 while ranking second in offensive DVOA for the season.
Last season, the Alabama product missed six games. Mike McDaniel’s offense plummeted from second to 22nd.
This season, Miami will have to achieve its offensive success without Terron Armstead, who retired in June.
Read More: Who is the Dolphins’ Backup QB?
Armstead consistently ranked as one of the league’s best left tackles. Last season, he ranked fourth in PFF’s offensive grades amongst all tackles.
Without Armstead, I worry even more about the offensive line’s ability to protect Tagovailoa and keep him healthy.
Even if that concern weren’t enough, questions remain about Miami’s defensive viability.
The returns of Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips undoubtedly help the defense. However, if Miami follows through and trades Jalen Ramsey, the secondary leaves much to be desired.
Plus, Miami struggled last season against a weak set of offenses. The Dolphins finished 19th in defensive DVOA against the fifth-easiest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, Miami projects to face the league’s 15th-hardest set of offenses.
All of that said, a few mitigating factors keep me from laying this price.
First, Miami sits tied for the league’s 9th-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals. Schedule makers also handed Miami a +11 net rest edge, per sharpfootballanalysis.com.
Secondly, all of Miami’s difficult games come at home. In Miami’s final nine games, five come against teams with win totals set at 9.5 or higher. All of those games are at home.
Those are enough to keep me from backing the Dolphins from a futures standpoint, in case the offense takes a big leap next season.
Miami Dolphins Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +155 | 39.2% |
When Was the Last Time the Miami Dolphins Won the Super Bowl?
Not since the 1974 season have the Miami Dolphins earned a Super Bowl title.
In fact, the Dolphins haven’t reached the NFL’s final game since the 1985 season. In five Super Bowl appearances, Miami is 2-3.
Miami Dolphins Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +6000 | 1.64% |
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