- Based on opening odds, Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+600) is favored to win MVP.
- Oddsmakers price six players inside +1100 to win NFL MVP in 2026.
- I predict Joe Burrow (+1000) or Jared Goff (+4000) wins NFL MVP this season.
Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the NFL MVP Race in 2026.Â
Who is Predicted to Win NFL MVP Race in 2026?Â
Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+600) is the current favorite to win NFL MVP. Allen possesses an implied probability of 14.3% to claim this year’s honor.Â
Second on the odds board is two-time MVP Lamar Jackson (+700). Jackson’s implied probability to win MVP is 12.5%.
NFL MVP Race Odds
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +600 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +700 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +900 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +1000 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +1000 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +1100 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +1200 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +1400 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | +1400 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +1600 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +1600 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +2000 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | +2000 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +2500 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +3500 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +3500 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +4000 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +5000 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | +5000 |
| Kyler Murray | +5000 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | +6600 |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | +6600 |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | +8000 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | +10000 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | +10000 |
Best NFL MVP Predictions for 2026
Joe Burrow (+1000)
MVP comes with a prerequisite requirement: your team has to win at least 12 games.
Each of the last seven MVP winners led their team over 11.5 wins. Six of those seven winners captured at least 13 wins.
Burrow lacks an MVP on his resume. But voters rewarded his resilience with a pair of NFL Comeback Player of the Year wins.
If there’s a season for him to win MVP, it’s this one. Based on 2026 NFL Strength of Schedule, the Bengals face the league’s second-easiest schedule by 2026 NFL Win Totals.
Two years ago, Burrow led a dominant Bengals offense. Cincinnati finished fifth in offensive DVOA, playing the league’s 15th-hardest set of defenses.
Last year, Cincinnati excelled when Burrow returned from injury. From Week 13 onward, only Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford outpaced him in adjusted EPA per play.
Burrow also led the NFL in completion percentage over expected during that timeframe. Against an easy schedule, I like the price on Burrow to win MVP.
Jared Goff (+4000)
Stafford proved last year that age is just a number when it comes to MVP. Goff, at five points higher than Stafford’s closing price last year, fits a similar profile.
Notably, Detroit plays the easiest schedule in the NFL by season win totals. Barring an injury crisis, it’s unlikely we’ll see the Lions close an underdog more than twice next year.
Detroit finished no worse than seventh in offensive DVOA over the last three years. Their worst rating (7th) came last year after Ben Johnson left for Chicago.
Drew Petzing offers an upgrade at offensive coordinator, even if Dan Campbell continues to call plays.
Detroit recorded at least 11 expected points added offensively nine times last year. Six of those successes came after Campbell took over play calling from Morton.
The offense also features NFL OPOY candidates Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Even with David Montgomery leaving, I like the construction of the offense.
At minimum, a 2.4% implied probability for the quarterback playing the (projected) easiest schedule strikes me as too low.
For a team that finished third in DVOA two years ago, I like the combination of price and offensive ceiling.
NFL Awards 2026 Odds Hub
- NFL Offensive Player of the Year
- NFL Defensive Player of the Year
- NFL Coach of the Year
- NFL Comeback Player of the Year
- NFL Rookie of the Year
Past NFL MVP Winners By Year
| Year | NFL Most Valuable Player |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford |
| 2024 | Josh Allen |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson |
| 2017 | Tom Brady |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan |
| 2015 | Cam Newton |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2010 | Tom Brady |
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