NFL MVP Race: Predictions & Current Betting Favorites

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the current favorite in the MVP race based on NFL odds. 

Jackson, who already owns two NFL MVP awards, is currently +550 to win a third this season. 

The Ravens signal caller is tailed closely on the board by Joe Burrow (+600) and Josh Allen (+600), who won in 2024. .

After Allen is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+650) and Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (+850).

For the full list of MVP odds, head to the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

NFL MVP 2025 Current Favorites

NFL MVP Predictions for 2025

Brock Purdy (+2800)

A bit of calculus exists behind this wager. 

I’m very bullish on the San Francisco 49ers in 2025. They play the league’s easiest schedule off a season decimated by injuries. 

Still, the 49ers’ offense excelled last year. Despite countless injuries, San Francisco ranked ninth in offensive DVOA against the ninth-hardest set of defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

That marks four years in a row the 49ers ranked ninth or better in offensive DVOA. 

If the 49ers take advantage of an easy schedule and continue to dominate offensively, I like Purdy’s chances of claiming his first MVP award. 

Each of the last six MVP winners led their team to at least 12 wins. All of the previous five won at least 13 games. 

Lookahead lines project the 49ers to be a market favorite in 15 games this season. 

If San Francisco takes advantage of that schedule, they could easily return to one of the top two seeds in the NFC. 

Pair that with the recent offensive success, and I like the price on Purdy, who contended for this award two years ago.

Jordan Love (+2500)

Much like the 49ers, Green Bay carries a high ceiling this season if all goes well. 

Love led an offense that ranked fourth in offensive DVOA last season, up from sixth in his “rookie” season (2023), according to ftnfantasy.com. 

Last season, Green Bay qualified as the only team fourth or better in offensive DVOA with 11 or fewer wins.

Last season’s performances also suggest positive regression could arrive in Wisconsin. 

Green Bay accumulated 11 wins last year, off 12.7 expected, the third-highest expected output in the league. That’s the largest underperformance amongst teams 10th or higher in xWins. 

If my assumptions are right about Green Bay, a top-2 seed in the NFC with 12-13 wins isn’t unlikely. 

As for Love, he ranked eighth amongst all quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play over the last two seasons. Last season, he ranked seventh, including fifth from Week 12 onward. 

Based on those factors, give me Love at +2500 to claim his first NFL MVP. 

Favorites to Win NFL MVP 2025

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (+550) is the current favorite to win NFL MVP.

At +550, Jackson’s implied probability to win NFL MVP comes in at 15.4%. With a win, Jackson would capture his second NFL MVP award in the last three years.

Three other players own odds of +750 or shorter to win: Josh Allen (+600), Joe Burrow (+600) and Patrick Mahomes (+650).

Those players’ prices imply probabilities of 14.3% and 13.3%, respectively. 

Read More: Super Bowl MVP Odds

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