- The New York Jets are currently +1000 to make the postseason after Week 4.
- New York last reached the postseason all the way back in 2010.
- I predict the Jets miss the postseason in 2025 due to a weak offense.
Based on NFL odds and Jets playoff odds, the New York Jets are predicted to miss the postseason this year.
New York, despite market support last season, failed to reach the playoffs. After a 5-12 campaign, oddsmakers adjusted New York’s price to make the playoffs to +10000.
Conversely, the Jets are 1 to miss the playoffs for another season.
Prediction: Will the New York Jets Make the Playoffs?
While I expect the Jets to finish above their market expectation in 2025, I predict New York ultimately Misses the Postseason (-650).
off the board
The case for backing New York is twofold.
First, the Jets ran fairly unlucky compared to its record last season.
New York earned five wins against seven expected, thanks to a 0-4 record in field-goal games and a 2-7 record in touchdown contests.
Additionally, bettors hold the opportunity to buy low on a defense that took a big step back in 2024.
Two years ago, the Jets ranked third in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. Last season, New York fell to 20th in that metric.
Read More: Who is the Jets’ Backup QB?
While it’s slightly concerning that regression came against an easier schedule – 15th-hardest in 2023 to 26th-hardest in 2024 – injuries might help explain those problems.
Only five teams suffered more adjusted games lost on defense than the Jets. Those injuries add further explanation to the Jets’ falloff in the second half of 2024.
From Week 1-9, the Jets ranked 14th in defensive EPA per play and ninth in defensive success rate. From Week 10 onward, New York dropped to 30th and 31st.
New head coach Aaron Glenn, who kept Detroit’s defense afloat last season despite myriad injuries, should help improve New York’s defense from its 2024 standing.
But two factors make me question how the Jets reach the postseason.
Based on opponent win totals, New York faces the hardest schedule amongst the four AFC East teams.
Additionally, while I like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson in the offense, the quarterback situation still leaves much to be desired.
Of course, the possibility exists that Justin Fields takes a step forward along with the defense.
That keeps me away from fading this Jets team in any capacity next season. However, I need further evidence before I take a position supporting this team.
What are the Odds the Jets Make the Playoffs?
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +475 | 17.4% |
| Week 2 | +650 | 13.3% |
| Week 3 | +650 | 13.3% |
| Week 4 | +800 | 11.1% |
| Week 5 | +1000 | 9.1% |
When Was the Last Time the New York Jets Won the Super Bowl?
The Jets won Super Bowl III back in 1969. Since that win, the Jets have neither won a Super Bowl nor appeared in the NFL championship game.
This season, the Jets count themselves among the long shots in the Super Bowl odds.
What are the Odds the Jets Win the Super Bowl?
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +15000 | 0.66% |
| Week 2 | +25000 | 0.40% |
| Week 3 | +50000 | 0.20% |
| Week 4 | +50000 | 0.20% |
| Week 5 | +75000 | 0.13% |
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