NFL Betting Trends for First-Time Coaches

Historically, coaches who take over a team have enjoyed decent success the following season.

Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game regular season, 24 coaches have taken over a team. This sample excludes coaches who possessed prior coaching experience.

A number saw instant success. Last year, Ben Johnson and Liam Coen led their teams to division titles. Mike MacDonald won 10 games his first year and a Super Bowl the next.

Here’s a look at historical NFL betting trends in relation to NFL odds.

NFL Betting Trends for First-Time Head Coaches

Blindly backing first-time head coaches to clear their season win total has (historically) proven profitable.

Save for the 2021 regular season, these coaches enjoyed success against their win total. After first-time head coaches finished 6-1 to the under in 2021, results improved starting in 2022:

• 2022: 5 first-time coaches, 3-2 to the over
• 2023: 3 first-time coaches, 2-1 to the over
• 2024: 4 first-time coaches, 1-3 to the over
• 2025: 5 first-time coaches, 3-2 to the over

Combined, these 17 coaches over a four-year sample size delivered a 9-8 record to the over. Notably, the coaches that produced positive seasons reached a high ceiling.

In 2021, Nick Sirianni’s Eagles cleared their win total and reached the playoffs. In 2022, Kevin O’Connell led the Vikings to a 13-4 record and the NFC North division title.

The same is true of 2023 DeMeco Ryan and the aforementioned Johnson/Coen teams. Of the 10 first-time head coaches to clear their win total since ‘21, seven made the playoffs.

The exceptions: a nine-win Colts team in Shane Steichen’s first year, a 10-win Seahawks team in MacDonald’s first year and a six-win Saints team under Kellen Moore last year.

Most of those coaches experienced success by winning the division. Of the seven that reached the postseason as a first-time head coach, four did so by winning the division.

The 2026 coaching carousel resulted in a majority of first-time hires. Of the 10 teams to replace their head coach this offseason, six elected for personnel with no prior NFL head-coaching record.

The six teams: Buffalo, Baltimore, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Miami and Arizona. Atlanta, New York (N), Pittsburgh and Tennessee opted for coaches with prior experience.

Joe Brady and Jesse Minter face lofty win totals in Buffalo and Baltimore. Both are favored to win their division as well.

Win totals for Todd Monken, Klint Kubiak, Jeff Hafley and Mike LaFleur are set quite low. All four will begin the 2026 season with win totals set at 5.5 or less, including 3.5 for the latter duo.