The One NFL Draft Stat That Predicts a 2026 Playoff Surprise

If you’re an NFL bettor, this week is all about looking for entry points into the draft. And indeed, BetMGM has NFL Draft odds available for play. 

But don’t neglect the larger NFL futures odds market, which is also available with some early preseason numbers. Bettors who stake early positions can often end up with great closing line value.

There’s one stat that I found this week while researching the draft that exists at the midpoint between the draft and the NFL futures market. In each of the last seven years, at least one team drafting in the top five has made the playoffs the following season.

Let’s break it down by year:

• 2025: Patriots, Jaguars
• 2024: Commanders, Chargers
• 2023: Texans
• 2022: Jaguars, Giants
• 2021: 49ers, Bengals
• 2020: Washington
• 2019: 49ers

With a seven-year sample size, it does seem like there’s a trend here. An infusion of talent, plus positive luck regression, can take a terrible team to the playoffs in just one year. 

This begs an obvious question. Of the five teams picking at the top of the 2026 NFL Draft, which one is a good bet to make the 2026 NFL Playoffs?

The teams in play are the Raiders, Jets, Cardinals, Titans, and Giants.

The Cardinals are an easy candidate to cross off, as they’re a team without a long-term solution at quarterback, playing in a brutally difficult division. 

The Jets are similarly tied to short-term solutions at quarterback. Their head coach might not be up for the job, and they currently have the longest active playoff drought in American professional sports.

That leaves the Raiders, Titans, and Giants. And of the three, there’s one obvious playoff contender that jumps out to me.

The New York Giants appear to have a solution at quarterback in Jaxon Dart – at least if he can learn to slide. They have a talented, cheap young core of offensive weapons. They have a new head coach who has won a Super Bowl. As of this writing, they have the No. 5 and No. 10 picks in this year’s draft.

The Giants, who were miserably unlucky last year from a metrics standpoint, could break through in an NFC playoff picture that’s pretty weak near the bottom. They might have even made the playoffs last year if they had stopped blowing leads and letting their quarterback scramble so much.

If the Giants have a strong draft this week, they could emerge from April as the playoff sleeper of choice for the NFL commentariat. There will be Giants segments all summer, talking up the potential of the renovated roster with a proven head coach. 

Right now, they’re 3-to-1 to make the 2026 NFL playoffs. And that number is only going in one direction.