NFL Parlay Picks: 2 SGP’s for Wild Card Weekend

Below, bettors can find a pair of NFL Parlay Picks for wild-card weekend based on NFL odds. 

Here, I’m looking to construct extremely correlated predictions based on team performances this season. 

For the process, I began with a game outcome and added legs that supported the thesis. For those new to the process, every leg has to come through for the bet to win. 

Let’s dive into the predictions. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Parlay Picks Today: 2 SGP’s for Wild-Card Round

Jaguars vs Bills Prediction: Bills Offensive Performance Decides Game

If you think the Jaguars win the game: Jaguars Moneyline, Bills Team Total Under 21.5 Points, Jaguars 1H Over 13.5 Points (+450)

If you think the Bills win the game: Bills Moneyline, Bills Team Total Over 30.5 Points, James Cook 100+ Rushing Yards (+450)

Buffalo’s performances this season have proven extremely correlated with its offensive output. The team is 12-0 when it scores 23 or more vs. 0-5 when it finishes with 22 or less. 

Jacksonville, meanwhile, possesses a strong enough offense that the defense hasn’t really mattered. 

That said, Liam Coen’s team is 13-1 when allowing under 29.5 vs 0-3 when allowing over 30.5. 

I added a third leg in the initial option, as Buffalo’s road defeats have seen them play from behind. 

Houston, Miami and Atlanta all cleared 13.5 points in the opening half against Buffalo. At home, Buffalo allowed 13 first-half points to the Eagles in a 13-12 loss. 

Jacksonville’s offense outpaces all four of those units in DVOA. Accordingly, it likely means the Jaguars are playing from ahead and forcing Buffalo to throw more. 

Regarding the third leg of the latter option, it gets to the heart of a perceived mismatch. Buffalo ranks second in rush offense DVOA, while Jacksonville ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA. 

Buffalo is 8-1 when Cook records over 100 yards vs. 4-4 when he doesn’t. 

Jacksonville has yet to allow an individual running back to record a 100+ yard game. However, Woody Marks and Nick Chubb cumulatively reached that mark in a 36-29 win. 

If Cook runs the ball efficiently, it keeps Jacksonville’s offense off the field and earns Buffalo more scoring opportunities. 

Bears vs Packers Prediction: Packers Offense Dictates Game Outcome

Early in the week, the line flipped in the NFC North rematch. That slightly quells my concern about Green Bay arriving at Saturday’s game riding a four-game losing streak. 

My three-leg SGP prediction for this game begins with Packers Moneyline. For the second and third legs: Jordan Love Under 0.5 Interceptions and Packers Over 26.5 Points. 

Those three legs reach a +340 price. 

This season, Green Bay recorded an 8-0-1 (W-L-T) record when the offense scored at least 27 points. When the offense scored 26 or fewer: 1-7. 

Prior to Week 18, the Packers notched a 7-0 record when the offense avoided turnovers entirely. In those seven games, Green Bay finished with 27 or fewer only once. 

That failure came at home against Minnesota, a sizably better defense than Chicago. This season, the Bears finished 2-5 when the defense allowed at least 27 points. 

Otherwise, Ben Johnson’s outfit recorded a 9-1 record. Additionally, Chicago finished with a 2-6 record when it turned an opponent over once or zero times. 

If Love avoids turnover on Saturday, it consistently exposes a bad Bears defense. It also likely coincides with Green Bay consistently finding scoring opportunities.