Below, NFL survivor pool players can find my Week 1 picks based on NFL odds at BetMGM.
For those new to the format, survivor contests ask players to pick one straight-up winner each week. However, players can only use each team once during the season.
2 Best NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1
Detroit Lions (-7) vs New Orleans Saints
Pre-Jordyn Tyson injury, you could have talked me into the Saints as an upset candidate. But with the Saints’ first-round pick injured, I question how the offense keeps up.
Week 1 marks the first time in his short career Tyler Shough starts a game with the total set in the 50s. Late last year, New Orleans ran hot late behind a strong defense.
It could come crashing down here against the Lions offense. Personally, I rate Detroit’s offense as the best unit on the field.
Despite losing Ben Johnson, Detroit finished seventh in DVOA and non-adjusted DVOA. New Orleans ranked 13th in the corresponding defensive category, but struggled against good units.
New Orleans played six games against top-10 DVOA offenses last season. The team finished 0-6 in such games with every team scoring at least 25 points.
The only argument against Detroit? Players can save them for use against multiple future opponents.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Part of me thinks Arizona can keep it close. Jesse Minter left the Chargers, whose defensive personnel played to a higher level than the sum of its parts.
At least one can make the argument Arizona *could* move the ball on Los Angeles. Jacoby Brissett – even in non-garbage time – posted decent metrics last season.
The NFL journeyman played 230 snaps last year with a win percentage between 30% and 70%. He ranked 15th of 23rd in adjusted EPA per play amongst quarterbacks over 200 snaps.
The argument against him? Only four quarterbacks registered fewer snaps in such situations.
What’s unknown about this game is how the Cardinals defense looks against LA’s offense.
Mike McDaniel arrives with a high-ceiling case, but I’m not sure the Cardinals defense looks as bad as its end-of-2025 metrics. If Arizona takes a step forward on defense, it could spell trouble.
However, options to use the Chargers in the future are few and far between.
That may render Jim Harbaugh’s team a viable survivor pick for Week 1, even if they’re the consensus choice.
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