NFL Team Defense Stats: 3 Teams Primed for Fewer Takeaways

Year over year, takeaways tend to fluctuate on defense.

In 2025, the Bears, Jaguars, Texans, Steelers and Rams paced the NFL in takeaways. The year prior, it was the Vikings, Steelers, Bills, Packers and Texans.

Jacksonville offers a prime example of how rapidly takeaway luck can change. The defense went from only nine takeaways (32nd) to 31 in 2025 (2nd-most).

The inverse happened to Buffalo, which took the ball away 12 fewer times. After ranking third in 2024 takeaways, Buffalo’s defense fell to 16th in 2025.

Here are three teams I predict will see a similar dropoff in defensive takeaways in 2026.

3 Teams Predicted to See Takeaway Regression in 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars

I’m not buying Jacksonville’s defensive improvement one bit. Driving a jump from 29th to sixth in DVOA? An easy set of opposing quarterbacks and consistently playing with leads.

Only New England faced a higher percentage of snaps against quarterbacks ranked 30th or worse in EPA per play.

The Jaguars faced 58% of defensive snaps against such quarterbacks. The gap between the Jags and third-place Chicago is as big as the gap between Chicago and T-10th.

In context, it should not surprise anyone the Jaguars played with a lead on 512 offensive snaps. Only New England and Seattle achieved a higher count.

Next year, the defense projects to face greater competition. Based on 2025 offensive DVOA ratings, Jacksonville’s opponents average a -0.3% rating, up from -1% in 2025.

Remember, it’s a schedule that features three games against bottom-five DVOA offenses, too. Against better quarterbacks and offenses, expect fewer takeaways from the Jaguars.

Seattle Seahawks

Mike MacDonald’s unit generated 25 takeaways on defense last year, including 18 interceptions.

But it’s worth noting 32% of the entire total and 33.3% of the interception total came in two games. The opposing quarterbacks? Max Brosmer and Kirk Cousins.

Those two are hardly what I’d call elite quarterbacks.

Next year, the Seahawks project to take a similar step forward in class like Jacksonville. By 2025 offensive DVOA rankings, the Seahawks project to face the hardest set of offenses.

Four games against Los Angeles (1st) and San Francisco (2nd) drove up that projection. But they also get good offenses like Chicago, New England, Dallas and Washington.

Even if you’re a believer LA and San Francisco regress from their 2025 rating, it’s still the sixth-hardest defensive schedule by a two-year blended average.

Those factors should inform some takeaway regression in 2026.

Chicago Bears

Everything that could go right for the Bears defense did last year. Thirty-three takeaways paced the league as the Bears faced 50% of snaps against QB’s 30th or worse in EPA.

Here’s the crazy part about the Bears’ 2026 schedule. Even with four games against the NFC South, the schedule still projects to look extremely difficult for the defense.

Last year, Chicago’s opponents averaged a -2.1% offensive DVOA rating. Only six teams finished with easier schedules.

Next year, the Bears project to face opponents that averaged a -0.5% rating in 2025. By a two-year blended average, it rises to +1.6% (seventh-hardest).

Just under 40% of their 23 interceptions came against Geno Smith, Spencer Rattler and Shedeur Sanders. Another three from J.J. McCarthy bring the percentage north of 50%.

Against a comparable more difficult schedule, bettors should see some takeaway regression in 2026.