Overpriced NFL Player Props for Most Passing Yards

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FILE - Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) looks before throwing a pass in the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the San Franciso 49ers in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Jan. 16, 2022. Prescott had surgery on his non-throwing shoulder after the season, a procedure coach Mike McCarthy said was a clean-up for an issue that isn't a concern. McCarthy told reporters at the scouting combine Tuesday, March 1, 2022, he expects Prescott to be available for offseason work. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, File)
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Colton Pool @CPoolReporter Aug 25, 2022, 1:20 PM
  • Justin Herbert is the NFL odds leader to lead the league in passing yards.
  • Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers are overpriced for the bet.

Last season, Tom Brady led the league with 5,315 passing yards. Passing volume helped, as did Tampa Bay’s group of skill players, arguably the best in the league.

Justin Herbert, with some standout receivers to turn to, is the NFL betting favorite to lead the league in passing in 2022. But some of the following quarterbacks are overpriced on this bet, largely because of the weapons around them.

NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds

PlayerOdds (8/23)
Justin Herbert+700
Patrick Mahomes+800
Matthew Stafford+850
Tom Brady+850
Joe Burrow+900
Derek Carr+1000
Dak Prescott+1200
Josh Allen+1200
Aaron Rodgers+2000
Russell Wilson+2000
Kirk Cousins+2000
Tua Tagovailoa+2500
Matt Ryan+3000
Jameis Winston+3000
Ryan Tannehill+3000
Kyler Murray+3000
Trevor Lawrence+3000
Mac Jones+3500
Trey Lance+4000
Deshaun Watson+5000
Carson Wentz+5000
Jalen Hurts+5000
Lamar Jackson+5000
Baker Mayfield+5000

Overpriced Props for Most Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes has the second-best odds to lead the NFL in passing yards at +800, but his team’s receiving corps looks substantially different this year.

The Chiefs are without four of their top six leaders in receiving yards last year. So 2,523 of the Chiefs’ 4,937 yards, about 51%, from last year are gone.

That includes Tyreek Hill, a six-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro who’s totaled at least 1,100 yards four of the last five seasons. He caught 111 passes for 1,239 yards on 159 targets in 2021.

Mahomes was fourth in the league with 4,886 yards last year. And yes, star tight end Travis Kelce is still on the team and the Chiefs added solid wideouts like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and second-round pick Skyy Moore.

But Mahomes will need some time to acclimate to his new teammates. This means his offense won’t reach its full potential until a few months into the season, and that will leave Mahomes too little time to catch up to some of his peers in passing yards.

Dak Prescott

The Cowboys also subtracted one of their best wideouts in Amari Cooper via a trade with the Browns. To make things worse, Michael Gallup appears to be unlikely to play at least the beginning of the season.

But compared to the Chiefs, the Cowboys didn’t do as much to replace that production. This leaves Prescott in a tougher place.

Prescott is tied with Josh Allen for the seventh-best odds to lead the league in passing this year at +1200. That’s fair considering he was seventh in the league with 4,449 yards in 2021.

The Cowboys were optimistic Gallup could help elevate their receiving corps by signing him to a five-year, $62.5 million deal after trading Cooper. And while he’s shown promise in moments, his availability doesn’t help Prescott.

Cooper caught 68 passes for 865 yards last year. Cedrick Wilson Jr., who is also gone, was fourth on the team with 602 yards and 45 catches.

Dallas did draft Jalen Tolbert in the third round, but that isn’t enough to help Prescott pace every other quarterback in yards. Combine that with the Cowboys’ run-heavy offense, and this is a bet not worth taking.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers lost perhaps the best receiver in the NFL this offseason, on top of his team’s third-leading receiver in 2021.

Davante Adams was an All-Pro after catching 123 of 169 targets for 1,553 yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who went to the Chiefs, was third with 430 yards and 26 catches. 

Only Allen Lazard (513 yards) totaled more than 400 yards for the Packers in 2021.

The Packers did draft Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and signed Sammy Watkins this offseason. But similar to Mahomes and Prescott, Rodgers needs some time to build chemistry with these new wideouts.

And even in an MVP season, Rodgers was 10th in the league with 4,115 yards, over 1,000 less than Brady. He was also 12th in attempts. And yet he’s tied for the ninth-best odds to lead the league in passing at +2000.

Simply, Rodgers will have to greatly outproduce his 2021 pace despite downgrades at receiver for this bet to be worthwhile.

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About the Author

Colton Pool

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Colton Pool is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM living in Bozeman, Montana, focusing on the NFL and NBA. Previously, he covered Montana State football at the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and worked at newspapers in his home state of North Dakota. He graduated from North Dakota State in 2015.

Colton Pool is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM living in Bozeman, Montana, focusing on the NFL and NBA. Previously, he covered Montana State football at the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and worked at newspapers in his home state of North Dakota. He graduated from North Dakota State in 2015.