Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 10:42 AM
  • The Buccaneers (2-0) are -1.5 point favorites vs the Packers (1-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 42 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Green Bay Packers (1-1) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) on Sep. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Tampa.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Packers vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

Bet now on Buccaneers vs Packers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 3

  Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Green Bay Packers +1.5 -110 42 -110 +100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 -110 42 -110 -120

Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this Week 3 game with 64.0% confidence.

Packers vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread this Week 3 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Packers and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Allen Lazard has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Completions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 16 games (+4.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Allen Lazard has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)

 

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Cole Beasley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Mike Evans has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Mike Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Cole Beasley has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Julio Jones has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 46% ROI)

 

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Packers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Leonard Fournette +400
Aaron Jones +750
Rachaad White +800
AJ Dillon +900
Breshad Perriman +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Packers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Leonard Fournette -225
Aaron Jones -125
AJ Dillon +110
Rachaad White +130
Allen Lazard +140

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
AJ Dillon 13.5 -115 13.5 -110
Aaron Jones 28.5 -115 28.5 -115
Leonard Fournette 26.5 -110 26.5 -115
Robert Tonyan 30.5 -110 30.5 -115
Allen Lazard 38.5 -115 38.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Aaron Jones 52.5 -115 52.5 -115
Aaron Rodgers 5.5 -115 5.5 -110
AJ Dillon 46.5 -115 46.5 -115
Leonard Fournette 69.5 -110 69.5 -115
Tom Brady 0.5 -110 0.5 -120

 

  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)

 

 

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+8.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 46% ROI)

 

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers have gone 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Packers are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Packers are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Packers are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 2-0 (+2 Units / 93.02% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 71.43% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Packers were 1-2 (.333) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Packers were 5-2 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .270.

The Packers are 2-1 (.667) when passing on 60% or more of plays since Week 7 of 2021 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .264.

The Packers are 19-2 (.905) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .497.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Buccaneers were 4-3 (.571) when rushing less than 20 times last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Buccaneers were 8-1 (.889) when playing in warm weather last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Buccaneers were 10-2 (.833) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .541.

The Buccaneers were undefeated (9-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .584.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers went three and out on 28.6% of their drives last week — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. Packers forced three and outs on 40% of opponent drives in Week 2 — best in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 47.4% of rush attempts since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL. Packers have allowed successful plays on 49.9% of rush attempts since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on just 26.5% of pass attempts last week — second-worst in NFL. Packers allowed successful plays on just 18.2% of pass attempts in Week 2 — best in NFL.

The Packers have run successful plays on just 23.6% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have pressured opposing QBs on 30.1% of passing plays since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL.

Packers QBs have given up 7 sacks this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL. The Buccaneers have sacked the quarterback 10 times this season — most in NFL.

The Packers have run successful plays on just 24.7% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since the 2020 season — third-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have pressured opposing QBs on 29.2% of passing plays since the 2020 season — second-best in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats for Week 3

The Packers have run successful plays on 60% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 55% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 50% of plays in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats for Week 3

The Buccaneers have started 4 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 11% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Buccaneers started 27 drives inside opposing territory last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Buccaneers had 17 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats for Week 3

Offenses facing the Packers threw the ball 27% of the time (11 Pass Attempts/41 plays) in Week 2 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Packers defense pressured opposing QBs on 73% of pass attempts in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Packers defense hurried opposing QBs on 64% of pass attempts in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Packers defense sacked opposing QBs on 21% of pass attempts (3/14) in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats for Week 3

The Buccaneers defense blitzed on 29% of plays last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed just one passing TD (82 pass attempts) this season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 21.3.

The Buccaneers defense blitzed on 26% of plays on 1st down last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Buccaneers defense forced 5 turnovers in Week 2 — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.