Packers vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

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FILE - Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers smiles during pregame of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions, Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022, in Detroit. Aaron Rodgers is planning to come back to the Green Bay Packers for an 18th season, a move that keeps the reigning MVP off the trade market and answers the question that had dominated NFL offseason discussions. (AP Photo/Lon Horwedel, File)
(AP Photo/Lon Horwedel)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:48 AM
  • The Packers (3-3) are -4.5 point favorites vs the Commanders (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Green Bay Packers (3-3) visit FedExField to take on the Washington Commanders (2-4) on Oct. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Landover.

The Packers are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Packers vs. Commanders Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 7

  Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Packers -4.5 -115 41.5 -110 -225
Commanders +4.5 -105 41.5 -110 +180

Packers vs. Commanders Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Packers will win this Week 7 game with 72.8% confidence.

Packers vs Commanders Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread this Week 7 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Packers and Commanders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+4.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Marcedes Lewis has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Sammy Watkins has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+2.85 Units / 15% ROI)

 

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Taylor Heinicke has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Antonio Gibson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • J.D. McKissic has hit the Receptions Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+3.40 Units / 57% ROI)

 

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Commanders vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Aaron Jones 22.5 -115 22.5 -120
Robert Tonyan 32.5 -115 32.5 -115
AJ Dillon 10.5 -110 10.5 -120
J.D. McKissic 17.5 -110 17.5 -120
Allen Lazard 48.5 -110 48.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Commanders vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Aaron Jones 55.5 -110 55.5 -120
Brian Robinson Jr. 52.5 -120 52.5 -110
Taylor Heinicke 13.5 -120 13.5 -110
Aaron Rodgers 3.5 -110 3.5 -120
AJ Dillon 42.5 -120 42.5 -115

 

  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)

 

 

  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 39% ROI)

 

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers have gone 2-4 (-2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Packers are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -29.49% ROI
  • Packers are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Packers are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 2-4 (-2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Commanders are 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -31.43% ROI
  • Commanders are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Commanders are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Packers are 12-3 (.800) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 14 passes since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-fewest in NFL.

The Packers are undefeated (12-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .636.

The Packers are undefeated (14-0) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .599.

The Packers are undefeated (9-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .616.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Commanders are winless (0-4) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .457.

The Commanders are 1-4 (.200) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.

— tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.

The Commanders are undefeated (5-0) vs bottom 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .531.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of just 11.1% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 4.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — tied for best in NFL.

The Commanders have scored on 19.4% of their drives in the first half this season — worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed scores on 28.6% of opponent drives in the first half this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of just 26.8% in the first half this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 17.1% in the first half this season — best in NFL.

The Packers have 49 touchdown passes since the 2021 season — fifth-most in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 47 passing TDs since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

Packers WRs have 34 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-most in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 47 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

Packers RBs have 9 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 12 receiving touchdowns to RBs since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Packers are averaging 18.0 drives per TD in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.1.

The Packers have scored on 23% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Packers have been flagged 44 times on offense since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

The Packers ran successful plays on 50% of plays in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Commanders have run 19% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Commanders have started 12 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Commanders have started 4 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 21% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 17% in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Packers defense has allowed first downs on 19% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Packers defense has allowed first downs on just 24% of plays on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Packers defense has allowed 53 of 108 (49%) first downs on the ground this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Commanders defense has hit opposing QBs on 32% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Commanders defense has pressured opposing QBs on 37% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 27% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Commanders defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 50% last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.