Packers vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • The Dolphins (8-6) are -4.5 point favorites vs the Packers (6-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Green Bay Packers (6-8) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (8-6) on Dec. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami Gardens.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Packers vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 16

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Packers+3.5 -11049.5 -110+155
Dolphins -3.5 -11049.5 -110-190

Packers vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 16 game with 60.5% confidence.

Packers vs Dolphins Spread Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread this Week 16 with 57.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Packers and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Interceptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+6.35 Units / 106% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Robert Tonyan has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Romeo Doubs has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Aaron Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.20 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+5.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 79% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Packers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Raheem Mostert +450
Tyreek Hill +550
Jeff Wilson +600
Aaron Jones +700
AJ Dillon +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Packers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Tyreek Hill -130
Raheem Mostert -120
Aaron Jones -120
Jeff Wilson +100
AJ Dillon +110

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Christian Watson 52.5 -115 52.5 -115
Robert Tonyan 21.5 -110 21.5 -120
Allen Lazard 42.5 -110 42.5 -120
Jaylen Waddle 64.5 -115 64.5 -120
Tyreek Hill 89.5 -110 89.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Aaron Jones 55.5 -115 55.5 -115
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have scored last in their last 5 away games (+5.25 Units / 87% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 4Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.05 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.95 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 60% ROI)

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers have gone 6-8 (-2.9 Units / -18.77% ROI).

  • Packers are 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.6 Units / -29.14% ROI
  • Packers are 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Packers are 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 7-7 (-0.85 Units / -5.4% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 6.68% ROI
  • Dolphins are 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Dolphins are 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Packers are 1-5 (.167) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Packers are 12-2 (.857) at home since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .528.

The Packers are 1-7 (.125) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.

The Packers are 2-7 (.222) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Dolphins are 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .604.

The Dolphins are undefeated (4-0) when leading at the end of first quarter this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .598.

The Dolphins are undefeated (12-0) when allowing less than 22 points since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .738.

The Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .572.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins TEs have just 24.8 receiving yards per game this season — second-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed an average ofjust 31.3 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — second-best in NFL.

Dolphins TEs have 35 receptions in 14 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — second-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed just 3.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for second-best in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have just 16.5 receiving yards per game since Week 12 — fourth-worst in NFL. The Packers have averaged just 21.7 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since Week 12 — fifth-best in NFL.

Packers RBs have 5 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 6 receiving touchdowns to RBs this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Packers have scored on 55.6% of their drives in the fourth quarter since Week 12 — third-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 46.2% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 12 — tied for third-worst in NFL.

Packers RBs have 67.0 receiving yards per game since Week 12 — second-best in NFL. The Dolphins have averaged 51.8 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since Week 12 — worst in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Packers did not go three and out on any of their drives in Week 15 — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Packers ran 72% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 15 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Packers ran 89% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 15 — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 1 of 10 plays (10%) on 3rd and short since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 59 of 117 plays (50%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Dolphins scored on 60% of their drives in Week 15 — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Dolphins have started 4 drives inside opposing territory this season — fewest in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Packers defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 4th quarter in Week 15 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Packers defense did not allow a successful play on any play in close and late situations in Week 15 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

23% of the plays run against the Packers have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Packers defense has allowed just 196.9 receiving yards per game (2,757/14) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 237.2.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted WRs 40% of the time (26 Pass Attempts/65 plays) in the red zone this season — tied for 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.