Packers vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 01, 2022, 2:57 PM
  • The Packers (3-5) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Lions (1-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Green Bay Packers (3-5) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (1-6) on Nov. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Detroit.

The Packers are betting favorites in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Packers vs. Lions Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 9

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Packers-3.5 -11049.5 -110-175
Lions +3.5 -11049.5 -110+145

Packers vs. Lions Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Packers will win this Week 9 game with 64.0% confidence.

Packers vs Lions Spread Prediction for Week 9

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread this Week 9 with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Packers and Lions, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sammy Watkins has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+4.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Robert Tonyan has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Christian Watson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Romeo Doubs has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for Week 9, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.15 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.30 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Team Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+6.80 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+6.80 Units / 87% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 56% ROI)

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers have gone 3-5 (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

  • Packers are 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.6 Units / -39.54% ROI
  • Packers are 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • Packers are 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions have gone 3-4 (-1.5 Units / -19.23% ROI).

  • Lions are 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -73.08% ROI
  • Lions are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
  • Lions are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Packers are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .532.

The Packers are 4-1 (.800) when passing for more than 300 yards since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .538.

The Packers are 2-4 (.333) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

The Packers are 12-2 (.857) when leading at the end of the first half since the 2021 season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .771.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Lions are 1-3-1 (.200) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .740.

The Lions are 1-2-1 (.250) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .780.

The Lions are winless (0-7-1) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Lions are 3-14 (.176) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .484.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions have a third down conversion rate of just 30.2% in the first half this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 24.4% in the first half this season — best in NFL.

The Packers are averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 5.5 yards per carry this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Packers RBs have 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed an average of 29 PPG this season — worst in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Packers had a third down conversion rate of 0% in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Packers have faced a blitz 26% of the time on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 54% of plays in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Lions ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Lions have an average drive start position from the 33.7 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.0.

The Lions did not record a TD in 11 drives in Week 7 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.7.

The Lions have started 41 drives inside their own 20 yard line since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Packers defense have forced three and outs on 33% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

30% of the plays run against the Packers have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Packers defense has allowed an average time of possession of 26 min and 32 s since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 30 min 47s.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats for Week 9

The Lions defense allowed successful plays on 91% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Lions defense has allowed scores on 59% of opponent drives in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Lions defense has allowed scores on 49% of opponent drives in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

The Lions defense has allowed an average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry (200 carries) this season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.6.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.