Packers vs Rams Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 5

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Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford drops back to pass during an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in Seattle. The Rams won 30-13.
(Stephen Brashear/AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:51 AM
  • The Packers are -3 point favorites vs the Rams
  • Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Green Bay Packers (2-2-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams (1-3-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.

The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Packers vs. Rams Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Rams Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Packers-3 -11548.5 -110-175
Rams +3 -10548.5 -110+145

Packers vs. Rams Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Packers vs Rams Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread with 63.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jayden Reed has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Tucker Kraft has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 57% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Rams players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rams Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Kyren Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Matthew Stafford has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kyren Williams has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Matthew Stafford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Tyler Higbee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Rams vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Romeo Doubs (GB) 48.5 -115 48.5 -115
Jayden Reed (GB) 59.5 -120 59.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Rams vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Kyren Williams (LAR) 88.5 -115 88.5 -115
Josh Jacobs (GB) 66.5 -110 66.5 -120
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.45 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers art 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Packers are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 2.27% ROI
  • Packers are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • Packers are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI

Rams Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Rams are 1-3 (-2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI).

  • Rams are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -20.73% ROI
  • Rams are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.85 Units / 41.57% ROI
  • Rams are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.87% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Rams

The Packers are 10-2 (.833) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Rams have intercepted 11 passes since the 2023 season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.

The Packers were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.

The Packers are 3-2 (.600) when not forcing a turnover since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .257.

The Packers were 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

Los Angeles Rams: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Rams are 1-3 (.250) this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Rams are undefeated (3-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .601.

The Rams were 3-1 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Rams were undefeated (3-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .611.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have been successful on 46.6% of plays they have ran against a light front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 46.1% of plays with a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Rams have run successful plays on just 22.2% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on just 28.1% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Rams have been successful on just 23.8% of plays they have ran against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 28.6% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Packers have 8 touchdown passes this season — T-2nd-most in NFL. The Rams have allowed 8 passing TDs this season — T-3rd-most in NFL.

The Packers have thrown for 20+ yards on 17 of 122 attempts this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Rams allowed 20+ yards on 13.7% of attempts this season — worst in NFL.

Packers WRs have gained 729 yards on 45 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Rams have allowed 14.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers threw for 4 TDs in Week 4 — most in NFL.

The Packers have 17 receptions for 20+ yards this season — T-most in NFL.

The Packers committed 5 turnovers in Week 4 — most in NFL.

The Packers had a third down conversion rate of 88% against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

Los Angeles Rams Offense: Important Stats

The Rams have run 27% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Rams have averaged -0.50 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

The Rams averaged -0.51 epa per play against a light rush last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Rams started 10 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers defense has 8 interceptions this season — T-most in NFL.

The Packers defense has forced 11 turnovers this season — T-most in NFL.

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 59% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 51% of pass attempts with a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Los Angeles Rams Defense: Important Stats

The Rams defense has missed 45 tackles this season — most in NFL.

The Rams defense have allowed 0.62 epa per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.04.

The Rams defense has allowed a passer rating of 141.4 when the opposing QB has scrambled (9 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 63.7.

The Rams defense has allowed a passer rating of 123.7 with a base rush (89 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.4.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.