Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Packers vs Falcons prediction for Week 3’s TNF matchup at Lambeau Field.
Packers vs Falcons: NFL Week 3 Odds
Falcons vs Packers Prediction
Based on the upgraded level of difficulty for Atlanta’s defense and their weak secondary against a good quarterback, my Packers vs Falcons prediction is the Packers Over 24.5 Points (+105).
Overall confidence in this game is relatively low. I want no part of either side, largely due to an uncertainty around how Green Bay matches up with Bijan Robinson.
Atlanta has looked incapable of moving the ball through two weeks. Led by Cooper Rush, the Falcons rank 32nd in expected points added per play and 31st in offensive success rate.
[Writer’s Note: The Falcons announced Michael Penix Jr. will start on Thursday against the Packers].
I can make the argument this is the easiest matchup for their offense, though. However, it comes on a short week with no time to study how the offense failed against Carolina.
If there’s a case to be made for this game, it’s a fade of the Falcons defense.
The unit lacks any kind of pass rush to exploit Green Bay’s offensive line issues. Corner A.J. Terrell and nickel corner Billy Bowman also could miss the short turnaround with injuries.
By 2025 offensive DVOA metrics, the Packers offer the toughest test for Geoff Ulbrich’s defense. Last year, Green Bay ranked sixth in offensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
The record includes a fourth-place DVOA rating through the air. Of course, Jaylen Reed is out for Thursday’s game while Green Bay faces the aforementioned offensive line issues.
We’ve yet to see the Falcons play a good passing attack this season. Pittsburgh ranked 22nd in pass offense DVOA last year while the Panthers finished 26th.
In Week 1, the Packers scored 22 against a good Vikings defense. It included four red zone trips where only one turned into a touchdown.
This could be the week positive regression arrives. It could prove an oversimplification, but if Bryce Young can produce strong results against this defense, so can Jordan Love.
Accordingly, it’s a look at the Packers team total over or nothing on Thursday night.
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